Pinnacle Television Prop -- Does this seem like a lock?

[Shakes]

Which show will have the most viewers?

Survivor - Cook Islands (-361) CBS
Ugly Betty (+321) ABC

This is a bridge jumper, but it seems like such a lock that it's going to be Survivor. Survivor was #4 in the ratings in its first week. #8 in its second week. The shows are both on at 8pm Thursday night.

In the same hour, these shows are up against the season debut of Smallville, My Name Is Earl and The Office.

Early critical reactions to Ugly Betty are that it's pretty bad (this coming from a friend of mine who reads a lot of critical stuff).

I know that Survivor is beginning to fall off in the ratings, but how could it lose here?