Southern Miss -4 @ UCF: Tuesday 9/26

[BobJoeJim]

"Only game of the day analysis" YTD: 2-0

I'm posting this a day early, because I really like a play, and the line seems to be moving against it, so it's worth getting on before tomorrow.

Southern Miss:
@ FLorida - L, 34-7
SE Louisiana - W, 45-0
NC State - W, 37-17

RB Damion Fletcher is tearing it up on the ground, for 6.1 yards per carry, and QB Jeremy Young is doing what he needs to do to keep the defense honest, hitting 58% for 7.85 yards per attempt (125). Against NC State the offense was clicking on all cylinders, both running and throwing at will, and massively stuffed the run defensively. Against Florida they couldn't stop Leak, but that's Florida, and as a bright spot they still ran it for 4.8 ypc. Killing SE Louisiana doesn't mean much but at least they killed them. This looks like a very solid offense, especially in the rushing attack, and a decent defense, particularly against the run.

UCF:
Villanova - W, 35-16
@ Florida - L, 42-0
South Florida - L, 24-17

Villanova is 1-2 against 1-AA competition, to go along with the loss to UCF. In this game UCF was held to 2.8 ypc, and let Villanova throw the ball efficiently, only getting the 19 point win by virtue of a 15/20 passing performance by QB Steven Moffett, for 199 yards and 3 TDs. Against Florida, UCF WON the turnover battle 4-0, and STILL lost 42-0. They were outgained 637-153, and could do NOTHING (except get occasional takeaways) on either side of the ball. In the USF game, Moffett was 19/44 with 2 picks, although the running game was marginally decent. USF's QB meanwhile picked them apart for 301 yards and 3 TDs on 21/31 passing.

Overall, Moffett is 50%, and the running backs are averaging 3.7 ypc each, with the team rushing as a whole being at 2.8 ypc. This offense looks HORRENDOUS, and even worse, it's one-dimensional, with half of Moffett's 48 completions being to one receiver, Mike Walker.

My take:
The only hint of strength in UCF's pathetic offense, is a running game that might be mediocre, instead of bad, and Southern Miss has been shutting down the run this year. Defensively it bodes well for UCF that they're slowing the run down some, but they haven't been light's out, and they've been destroyed through the air by everyone. Southern Miss can throw it well enough, to go along with what so far is a great running game, to move it easily I think. Oh yeah, and last year Southern Miss led 45-7 at halftime, winning 52-31 with UCF backdooring the last 17 points in the fourth quarter.

Southern Miss is -4.5 on Pinny and -5 on Cris, but as of now you can still get -4 -107 in the Mansion exchange or -4 -110 at TheGreek as of this posting. This is @ Central Florida, so I see a 31-14 type score here. Neutral site 34-7 would sound more likely. I just jumped on this line, and recommend you do the same.

(Also, if UCF is as bad on offense as I think, the under may be good too, but it's a much weaker lean. Southern Miss -4 is my bet here).