UFC 63 9/23/06

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I really dont see how BJ Penn is going to win this fight.

If youve seen the last fight, it wasnt so much Penn beating Hughes, but Hughes beating himself. Penn got the takedown early basically because Hughes took a horrible halfass shot that just put himself on his back. Then when Penn mounted Hughes, he rolled to his stomach right away which is the worst thing that he couldve done and would never do now.

Hughes has gotten so much better since that fight. Hughes' striking continues to get better and better as hes been training in the best camp in the UFC...whereas Penn has taken most of the time since then off. When they are on their feet, Hughes should get the best of Penn.

Penn is a great jiu-jitsu guy, but we saw Matt Hughes out jiu-jitsu Royce Gracie. Put that on top of the fact that I cant imagine Penn taking Hughes down, and I just dont see an aspect of the fight where the advantage would go to Penn.

And lets not forget that Penn took up this fight on short notice. And that Hughes is avenging a loss which will give him a mental edge and extra fire to train harder.

Hughes -206 seems way off to me and an extremely valuable bet.

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Well, while I think Hughes is definately the favorite...I think to say that you can't see how Penn can win this fight is clearly a lack of imagination.

Penn only recently came back to the UFC, but he's fought in the interim (since the last Hughes matchup).

Penn has the EXACT skills needed to beat Hughes (one of the few guys in the world). If you say Penn can't beat Hughes, then you are basically saying no one in the world can beat Hughes (which isn't a horrible statement, but i think it's possible).

Penn has great wrestling skills. He can fight a takedown as good as just about anyone. It takes a lot of effort to get him down.

Next, Penn is a jui-jitsu prodigy. To suggest that Hughes can hang with him in this discipline is naive. I think Hughes has VERY good submissions, but he's not as good as Penn.

Next, Penn is better of the feet. Plain and simple. I don't see how this can be argued. Hughes is competent on his feet...but he's not nearly as skilled as Penn.

And finally...Penn doesn't get finished. He's fought great fighters, and I don't ever remember seeing him get knocked out, or submitted. I saw him lose a decision to Pulver, I saw him lose a decision to Pierre...but he was never close to getting finished.

This fight could go 5 rounds. Hughes isn't use to going 5 rounds. I know Hughes is in great shape...but going 5 rounds is hard for anyone. In the 5th round, could Penn make something happen?

I don't know. Penn will, without doubt, have to be at the top of his game. Most importantly, he will have to be in great shape. If he does that, I have no doubt in my mind he has the tools to win the fight.

However, Hughes is always capable of taking the guy down, and throwing elbows for 5 rounds. If Penn isn't ready, I have no doubt this is how it will go. Regardless...this is NOT a mis-match.

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I disagree that Penn has the exact tools to beat Hughes. In fact Id go as far to say that Hughes has the exact tools to beat a guy like Penn. Hughes is going to be able to put this fight exactly where he wants it.

Penn is scrappy by all means, but by no means is he a great wrestler. He squirms his hips around well when a takedown attempt is being shot on him, but a decent wrester will be able to control his hips. GSP had 4 takedown attempts and he missed the first one because he didnt control Penn's hips. He corrected that error and got the next 3 rather easilly. Hughes' wrestling skills are far superior to GSP's and hes much stronger than GSP.

In my opinion, in order to be able to beat Hughes more than 1/3 of the time, you need to be very well rounded obviously, but then also have one of two things: be a better wrestler than Hughes or have 1 punch knockout power like Liddell.

Im not saying Hughes is better at jiu-jitsu than Penn. That would be rediculous obviously. What I am saying is that Hughes is good enough to stay out of Penn's submission attempts most of the time.

When I said that Hughes should get the best of Penn on their feet, I didnt mean that Hughes would out strike Penn. (Although I can understand thats how it seemed like I meant). What I really mean is that Hughes will be able to dictate what happens on the feet. Hughes has gotten very good at closing the gap between himself and his opponent without putting himself at much risk. Once he gets close, he just manhandles his opponents and gets takedowns like its nothing...often times picking them up and slamming them up against the fence. Penn has a very active guard and if he gets put up against the fence it should limit what Penn can do from his guard. This is what GSP did to Penn...he closed the gap, pushed him to the fence and got his takedowns. I fully expect Hughes to do the exact same thing.

If this fight goes 5 rounds, I really dont see how anyone could argue that would be advantagous to Penn. With a full amount of training, he faded in the 2nd round against GSP. He took this fight on short notice. If this goes to a decision then its undoubtedly in Hughes' favor.

And Id like to reiterate that the fact that Hughes is getting a chance to avenge a loss is a HUGE factor. Hughes is not going to take this fight lightly.

I think Penn is going to need Hughes to make a big mistake in order to win this. But I think we will see the best Matt Hughes weve ever seen, and I think that such a mistake is highly unlikely.

Obviously Im interested in discussing any alternative viewpoints.