UFC 63 9/23/06

[Recliner]

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BJ will look impressive in the first round, gas and then get dominated for the rest of the fight. Hughes is biger, stronger, and better conditioned. When was the last time BJ looked really impressive for more than 5 minutes in a fight? Its going on 4 years now.

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I found this thread on Sherdog. It is an interview with with BJ Penn. From the interview he says that his training has been horrible, he's going to train extra hard for the month leading up to the fight and he plans to stay at his current weight of 167/168.

From that I'm going to assume that:
1. Matt Hughes is going to come into the fight with far better conditioning as his training and team is better than Penn's in addition to having been preparing for the fight for a longer time period.

2. Hughes is going to drop weight, while it doesn't sound like Penn is going to. Hughes is going to come in somewhere around 185-190 with a minimal amount of fatigue.

3. Hughes is coming into this fight, much stronger than Penn.

If Penn actually has a skill advantage I don't think it can make up for the physical differences. Plus Hughes is a smart fighter and isn't going to leave himself open for a submission by Penn. I think Penn is going to spend most of the fight on his back and it is going to end as a TKO in round 3 or 4.