NFL Week 2 - Time to pound the dogs?

[Sadat X]

One week is too small a sample size to evaluate how good or bad a team is. There's a number of teams that looked incredibly bad in week 1 and have taken a beating in the media over past few days. Fortunately for us, the media and the public tend to put too much emphasis on recent results and this is where we can find some +EV bets. Submitted for your consideration:

Oakland +12 @ Baltimore
I like this one because no team looked better than Baltimore or worse than Oakland. But 12 points? You still can't divert me from the fact that this is a battle of two non-playoff teams from last year. Oakland has a few nice parts on offense at key positions (Moss, Jordan, Gallery) and Baltimore could letdown here.

Cleveland +10 @ Cincinnati
I love getting 10 points in a rivalry game, even if it's on the road. This is the NFL, after all.

Tampa Bay +5.5 @ Atlanta
Vick always struggles vs the Bucs, TB has won 9 of the last 11 vs ATL.

New Orleans @ Green Bay +2
The NO defense will look a lot softer to Favre and company after facing the Bears week 1. No team has taken more shots in the media than the Pack and I think that bodes well for this line that should probably be PK.

Tennessee +11.5 @ San Diego
The way Marty Schottenheimer calls a game, SD isn't going to blow many teams out of the water. This is probably the most marginal line, IMO, but it goes with the philosophy, so I'll put up a unit.

One unit per game, I feel like I can get 3 out of 5. Good luck everyone.