AL/NL Cy Young Futures and a Howard Longshot

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A book that I frequent has up what I found to be a couple possible good bets on these races.

They still had Johan Santana at 1-1 to win the Cy even though he is virtually leading the AL Pitching Triple Crown (after Liriano got hurt, and I think sportswriters look at these 3 stats more than anything else) Not making the playoffs could hurt him a bit, but the only playoff contenders with an outside shot seem to be Wang, Mussina, Rivera, and Verlander. Verlander may have an outside shot, currently at 9-2, while the 3 Yankees range from 5-1 with Wang 4-1 on Riv and 10-1 on Moose.

The NL race is a little more interesting, but I have to like Carpenter at 2-1. He may only have 13 wins at the moment, but I feel this will come up. He just secured a near 1/5 run lead in the ERA (2.97) race over Webb (3.14) and a shellacked Johnson. Webb (5-2), though with 14 wins, has faded and watched his ERA climb half a run in his last 10 starts.

I think Carp is a lock if he stays sharp and hits 15-16 wins. Brad Penny (7-2) has 15 W, likely pretty to the voters, but his current 4.21 ERA should keep him out of it. No one else comes in at better than 5-1 (Wagner). Carp's division title in a pitching staff that has otherwise featured Ponson, Mulder, and Jeff Weaver looks to give him the edge over Webb .

I also took a flyer on a Ryan Howard MVP at 5-2 (Pujols with a 4-5 up right now.)

So, where's the smart money?