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Fictional Prop Bet
Please settle an argument. I believe this is a straight-forward application of EV, but I'm having trouble convincing others to accept this game.
Game: 10 player tournament, top 3 get paid, 1st > 2nd > 3rd. Assume: 1) you have an unlimited bankroll 2) this game will be offered to you forever 3) you have a positive ROI for this game, and always will, where ROI = prize / buyin - 1 as usual. Bet: Someone offers to bet $X that you'll be negative after 10 tourneys. I claim you should take this every day. I have a positive ROI, so I'm expected to be ahead after 10. I say screw variance because I have an unlimited bankroll and can always just play again. Why can't I convince people of this? Can you? |
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