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Variance is good in tournament poker
While many winning players fear variance, higher variance is good in tournaments. Take 2 players that both have the same average finish-say their average is 30th percentile, the player with the higher variance will make more money over time, based on the pay structure of tournaments, which disproportionately rewards high finishes.
I think this concept can be used to explain many tournament specific concepts. Why the best players are more likely LAG's in tourneys, versus TAG's in ring games. Why players should not avoid even money are slightly EV + plays early in the tourney even if they are better than the average player in the field. Why the maniac rebuy strategy where players intentionally make EV negative, high variance plays, is successful. Variance sucks when you have waited all year for the Main Event and you Queens lose to the big stacks AK, but in the world of online poker with limitless opportunities to find a tourney, I say embrace variance. |
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