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Call or fold to river bet when you are almost sure you are beat?
Setting: Typical small stakes game online. No specific reads on any player.
Hand: You open-limp with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the position just before the cut-off. SB calls, BB checks. (3 small bets pot). Flop is K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] giving you the nut flush. SB bets, BB calls, you call. (3 BB pot) Turn is K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB bets, BB calls, you raise. SB and BB calls. (9BB pot) River is 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. SB bets, BB folds. (10 BB pot) Call or fold? Two possible "solutions" to this: 1: - Even if you most likely are beind, this is a standard call. You must call 1 BB to potentially win 11 BB, and you cannot with 91% (1/11) certainty put your opponent on a K or 5 for a full house. - Your opponent can have a lower flush, a pocket pair or be on a pure bluff - in all these cases you will win. - Folding in this situation is a big error/leak since you could lose a big pot. You only have to win 1 of 11 times to break-even on the call, and in reality you will win much more often. 2: - This is a marginal and tricky situation, both call and fold could be right, this is read and table dependant. - Without any reads, a fold is probably better since you are normally more than 91% certain that your opponent has a full house given the action in the hand (particularly since he called the turn-raise, signalling he is not bluffing) - Many new players tend to wrongly call in these situation with the only argument "it's a big pot". They can get away with this on lower limits, but this can turn into a significant leak on higher limits. Any input would be helpful. (The hand is simliar to the example on page 150 in SSH) |
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