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Over bet on turn, thoughts?
First 2+2 post, correct if needed…
$10+1 Sit N Go No converter for Bodog. Table is conservative, no read on Villian, I translate his move as a very typical weak move, but I’d like opinions. I should be seen as very TAG. Please consider BB and how many people are left. BB = 100 UTG (985) UTG+1 (785) Hero (1080) MP1 (1005) MP2 (970) CO (675) Button (990) SB (1970) BB (1540) Preflop: Hero is in UTG+2 with JJ UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to 300, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls 250, BB folds, UTG calls Flop: (1000) 8d As 9c SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks Turn: (1000) Ah SB bets 1670 (All-in), UTG folds, Hero…….? My thoughts, Preflop: I’m thinking I would love action with my JJ, only picking up the blinds + 1 here seems insignificant, seeing how blinds are huge with this many people left. I think raising 4xBB might kill the action ( though that’s not much more) and waste a potential double up hand. Seeing the BB chip stack makes me believe his calling range is worth getting action, as well as the UTG which I already put on QJs, KQ, A10s, and 66-88 maybe (I realize it’s a stupid move but that’s typical at these levels). Flop: This is my reasoning. If SB had A10-AQ, which seems like the most reasonable hands to have here (I think AK would have/should have gone All-in preflop, but who knows), he should check this flop with the intention of calling my potential All-in, which I feel I might be obligated to make despite the flop, b/c I’m the aggressor w/ 7BB left in front of me, plus if he had that range of hands how likely would he be here to fold to my All-in? I’ll assume my read on UTG is still correct and I don’t see a feel out raise to be of any use to me seeing as how it would cost me way too much and leave me w/ nothing against a reraise All-in which I don’t see how I could call. My All-in will either take the pot or take me out, even though w/ 7BB left I could make a come back, but that’s a crap shoot. Turn: My instincts scream at me after seeing the SB go All-in, that I have the best hand. I don’t see why you would bet here if u don’t want a call, which I can’t imagine he would want as seeing how I checked the flop. I assume this to be a terrible steal, anyone agree? |
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