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reviewing a hand, so ignore the flop bet for now... right now I am trying to correct a math blunder for the EV calculation of a turn semibluff.
PokerStars 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, Button calls. Flop: (10 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls, SB calls. Turn: (6.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks. Assuming Hero bets again on the turn... what percentage of the time does it have to be breakeven? here's what I did so far let x represent the % of the time that villian folds here. so x % of the time, hero wins 6.5 BB's our equation so far: 6.5x = 0 but 1-x amount of the time, hero will be called. (for simplicities sake, lets magically assume that 1 villian will always fold) that 1-x time hero gets called. lets give hero 9.5 outs to improve (8 for OESD, and lets give 1.5 for A outs, since they aren't completely clean) sooo, ignoring also the next betting round (again, to make this calculations easier), let's calculate the EV of getting called 9.5 outs with 46 unseen cards, he'll win 7.5 BB's, the remainder of the time, he'll lose 1 BB (9.5/46)*7.5 + (36.5/46)(-1) = ~.7554 BB brings our equation now to 6.5x + (1-x).7554 = 0 lets simplify it a bit 5.7446x + .7554 = 0 sooo [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] I have a negative answer? |
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