Some questions regarding pot-equity etc.

[Big kicker]

Here is something I don´t understand about pot-equity and other things. If somebody could explain it for me I would be very glad.

Let´s say we are on the flop with a nut flush draw in a limit hold´em game so we have about 35% or a 1 to 2 chance of making our flush and winning by the river. Our chance of winning by the turn is about 20% or 1 to 4. We are HU and the other player bets 1$ and the pot is now 3$ (I assume he is not bluffing) so the pot odds give us 25 % or 1 against 3. If we use the river-chance (RC) we should call and if we use the turn-chance (TC) we should fold. What is the correct play?

From my point of view the correct play is to use the TC and fold because the RC implies that we continue to the river and we don´t know what is going to happen on the turn.

For example: if the other player bets 2$ on the turn and we call to see the river (I assume that if we make our flush on the river the other player will check and fold to at bet from us) we will have invested 3$ (1$ to see the turn and 2$ to see the river) to win 5$ (the 3$ pot and the other players 2$ bet on the turn). This equals implied pot odds of 1 to 1,67 which makes the RC-call a wrong decision.

If the other player would call a bet on the river or if he would check the turn the RC would be correct – but unless we have a really good read on him we don´t know what is going to happen. And in a no limit game it gets even worse as he could go all-in on the turn.

So far it has been quite simple but all this give me another problem. Lets say we are in the BB (1$) and UTG raises to 2$, everybody folds to us. Here the litteratur recommends a call with almost any hand because we are getting 1 to 3 pot odds and most of the time we have at least 25 % of winning by the river. But isn´t this the same situation as before and therefore a wrong call? The 25% is only if we stay to the end of the hand and we don´t know what is going to happen on the flop , turn and river! Shouldn´t it be the chance that our hand is the best 25% of the times on the flop that we should base our decision on?
(I can understand using the 25% if we had to go all-in to call, because then we know for sure we will see the river).

Another problem is the pot-equity descripted in “Small stakes hold´em – winning big with expert play” on page 35-38. It says that if we have 35% pot-equity of making our hand by the river we can bet out if we think at least 2 opponents will call, but again we don´t really know if we are staying in the hand to the river. If the 2 (or more) opponents begins to raise and reraise on the turn maybe we would have fold.

I hope it make sense [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]