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#17
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let the two amounts be A and 2A
I think argument 1 only holds true if A is randomly selected so that 0<A<inf, where a A can be any positive number where A mod 0.01 = 0. If this is the case there is a greater than 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 9999999 percent chance that A is greater than 10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000 so i dont think it matter which envelope you pick, because your expected value is near infinity. If A has a finite number of values or a finite range (unknown to you) then i think your EV is predetermined no matter your desision. imagine you give this challenge to a million people using A=50 and to a million people using A=100. Your EV = -75,000,000 - 150,000,00 = -225,000,000. assuming people always try to switch. Edited to make A only even cents. |
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