6/2 Box Office Wagering: The Break-Up

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Last week was an easy win on the X-Men Over. This week is much tougher, with the only release being a romantic comedy featuring Vince Vaughn and Jennifer Aniston, The Break-Up. Analysis below, Cliff Notes at bottom.

Pros: Marketing has been strong, with lots of print ads and commercials. Public awareness is high, with the high profile divorce of Jen and Brad, and subsequent romances of Brad and Angelina, and now Jen and Vince. Vince is a decent draw, as one of the more popular comic actors currently, and coming off of a great summer comedy last year in The Wedding Crashers. This is the first romantic comedy in a long time, since February, and is good counterprogramming to the recent action and drama movies. There is little competition, with an X-Men that will drop to the $40's or so, a Da Vinci Code and Over the Hedge that will drop to the teens, and no other new releases.

Cons: Jen is fading, and not a big draw on her own. She did fine opposite a name comedy actor like Ben Stiller in Along Came Polly, but she and Kevin Costner bombed in Rumor Has It. The Break-Up is getting poor reviews, at 27% at Rotten Tomatoes and 42 on Metacritic. The premise, a romcom based on a couple splitting up and constantly bickering, seems shaky, as fighting is not what couples look for in a date movie.

Wagering line: I expected a line in the high $20's, low $30's, and that's what we got. It jumped around between 27-30, and seems to have settled around 28.

Pinny:
Over 28 million -110
Under 28 million -105

WSEX:
Over 27.5 million -160
Under 27.5 million +120

Prognosticators: Various analysts have predicted $26, $31, $26, and $30 million. Various comparable movies have earned anywhere from $20-40 million on opening weekend.

Wager: So that pretty much leaves us stuck. All this write-up for no play. I just can't see a side I'm comfortable with, although I mildly like the Over. Over $28 at near even money is a reasonable wager for a small amount, but I'm staying off it for now.

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This weekend is not a total loss at the box office, though. Pinny also appears to be offering a wager on two movies competing in their 3rd week out: The Da Vinci Code vs. Over the Hedge.

In their 1st weekends, Da Vince opened huge to $77 mil, while Over the Hedge earned $38. Da Vinci has gotten slaughtered by the critics, though, with a 23% RT, 46 Meta, and C+ Yahoo, while Over the Hedge is a fun little family friendly movie getting a 72% RT, 67 Meta, and B Yahoo. User ratings are a little closer, but OTH still beats Da Vinci. Furthermore, kids' movies have better legs than action/dramatic thrillers.

This sets the stage for their 2nd weekend, where Da Vinci fell hard by 56% to $34 and OTH fell more mildly by 30% to $27. Da Vinci should fall more mildly next weekend, while OTH will be consistent. Daily results have OTH narrowing the gap slightly each day. So we appear to be set for a fierce battle, that really could go either way.

Prognosticators have Da Vinci at 17, 16, and 17.7, while OTH at 16, 17, and 16.4. So it really could go either way. I see it as pretty dang close to a 50-50 proposition. However, the line offers a +EV betting proposition, with the following currently available at Pinny:

Movie with higher weekend box office:
The Da Vinci Code +195
Over the Hedge -225

Not sure why the line is so far off, but this seems like a good spot to get almost 2:1 on your money in on a 1:1 shot. Since it could go either way, though, and with OTH having better legs, it's not nearly as strong a play as last week.

If I were rating the plays on a 1-5 scale, I'd give last week's X-Men prop 5 stars, and Da Vinci over OTH 2 stars. This corresponds roughly to the units I've put on each, but everyone's units and money management systems are different.

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Cliff Notes:

No Play on The Break-Up Over/Under 28. Wouldn't argue with the Over for a small amount if someone liked it.

2* play on Da Vinci earning more than Over The Hedge at +195. Worthwhile edge at +150 on up, and +EV at any positive odds.