A Study on 3-Betting from the Small Blind

[cartman]

We all know the problems that our nemesis small sample size presents. Big long-term winners break even for 100K hands at a time and suffer precipitous downswings with frightening frequency. But as we look at more specific situations such as play from a particular position, the sample size problem amplifies.

For instance, if 100K hands can be such a fluke with regard to our overall winrate, imagine how out of whack our winrate from the SB can be when we look at it for that same 100K period. About 20% of my total hands are in the Small Blind. Does that mean that I could play 500K overall hands and have a fluke winrate from the Small Blind since I only played about 100K hands from that position? I think it does.

That brings me to the purpose of my study. There is considerable variation among us with regard to our 3-betting criteria from the Small Blind when facing an open-raise. We all try to adjust based on the position of the raiser, his estimated hand range, his postflop tendencies, and the profile of the player in the Big Blind. But even when all of these parameters are identical, I think there is still considerable variation among us. I suspect the reason is that we just never know for sure what the best approach is. Our sample sizes are prohibitive and so maybe we just gravitate to what feels best. We also may be trick ourselves into using whatever criteria we were using when we happened to run hot from that position--attributing the good results to good policy making instead of to variance.

So the first step of my study is to get an idea of just how much variation there is among us with regard to our 3-betting criteria. Here is the situation:


<font color="blue"> A player who is 30/20/2 with Attempt to Steal Blind of 40 open raises. He has a Went to Showdown of 38. You know nothing about his postflop tendencies aside from these stats. The Big Blind has the same stats and a folded Big Blind to Steal of 50. We know nothing about his postflop tendencies either. You just joined the table and therefore have no particular image and have no history with either player.

What is your approximate 3-betting range if the open raiser is:

1)UTG
2)UTG+1
3)CO
4)BUTTON</font>


Thanks,
Cartman