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Old 05-10-2006, 12:36 AM
Catt Catt is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,239
Default Re: 99 - rag flop; two bets to me in pre-flop capped pot 4-ways

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(4) The flop itself was pretty damn good for my hand, but if I were to continue on with no chance to try and thin the field by facing two players with two cold by C/Ring the expected MP lead, I had to decide whether making it three either (1) had sufficient value, and/or (2) could induce a fold from a hand that I'd like to fold.

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The real question is how much a 3-bet improves your chances of winning the hand. If this amount was substantial, then it would be important to 3-bet, even if you had less than 50% equity against the MP. But this is actually quite a parlay:

a. You have to have the best hand right now;
b. You can't be outdrawn by MP, who certainly isn't going anywhere.
c. BB and UTG have to have something that they'll fold -- this seems possible for UTG but unlikely for BB.

My guess is that your nines are currently best and won't be outdrawn by MP about 1/3 of the time. I'd also guess that, on average, a 3-bet will fold something like 4 non-redundant outs. So I think a 3-bet buys you about 1 1/3 worth of an out (4 x 1/3), or about 3% of the pot.

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Where do we account for the likelihood of BB folding for two more (is it imputed in the 4 non-redundent outs that will fold versus some larger number of outs?). Or is this what you calculate we're buying assuming BB folds to the three bet?

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(6) There are a crapload of turn cards I'm going to hate, and I'll be first to act on the turn if I see it; since I'm first to act, if I three-bet and get called in three places, the turn is going to be a very uncomfortable bet or a very uncomfortable check.

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I actually think the play is to call here and lead out and call one raise on a comfortable turn card, and check and call one bet on a somewhat uncomfortable turn card.

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How are you reacting if we call and BB makes it three bets (or UTG comes out of nowhere to do so)? Or if one of them makes it 3 and MP caps it?
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