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Old 01-08-2006, 03:10 AM
Mad Genius1 Mad Genius1 is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 559
Default Re: Common Critical Situation on Flop: To raise or not to raise TPTK?

It's important to consider whether villian was in the BB or not, as it makes random 2pr hands more likely. On the other hand, if villian limped and he's a good player, his hand-range here should be relatively clear: 99-JJ, 55/88, AA/KK (if he was first in pot), AQ-QT, or 76. AQ is ahead against a good portion of this hand range, but the important thing to consider here is that if villian understands NL, he will not be calling with a hand that AQ beats here, except 76. This, of course is all given that you don't have the image of a complete maniac. However, it is easy for him to trap with AA/KK or a set since he should be able to pin your hand fairly easily, that being AQ/KQ most of the time. Would most players raise a set on this flop, posssibly with people to act between them? Doubtful, although hero will have a set a small % of time. Thus, if villian smooth calls the raise (say, to 350), then the pot is 800+ and with these stack sizes hero is in danger of putting in another 1k+ drawing slim or dead.

Hero has position here and a medium-strong hand. The pot is small and there are almost no draws out. You are almost always way ahead or way behind, and based on villians' turn play, his hand range should become much more defined.
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