#13
|
|||
|
|||
Re: Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB
[ QUOTE ]
Someone double check the math for me. Villain folds:+358 Assuming you have 2 outs to win once he calls 1-[(47-2)/47 x (46-2)/46]=8.4% to win if he calls Villain calls:EV=[(8.4%)x(814)]+[(91.6%)x(-814)] [/ QUOTE ] This part is off - hero wins 8.4% of 814 when called, but when he calls and loses it is (91.6%)x(-228) which is the cost of hero's bluff. This changes the ultimate answer pretty drastically: EV= 68.37+ -208.85 EV= -140.478 Fold equity to make it neutral EV where fold equity =x 0=x(358)+(-140.478)(1-x) 0=358x-140.478+140.478x 0=498.478x - 140.478 140.478 = 498.478x x = 28.18% I would venture that there is a >28% chance that villain has called a hand that is not AA/KK that will fold, either a poorly played QQ/JJ or some shenanigans that shouldn't have seen a flop, so I would shove. It doesn't necessarily matter if the hand that folds is AQ-esque, since we cannot call a bet so we are just taking the right of first bluff. Surf |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|