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Value Bet vs. donktardamus?
Villain is the reason I am at the table and is clocking in at 52/4/1.3. We have tangled a bit and I have been owning him so far. Two or three orbits before the hand in question, this hand happened:
Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game 9 Players LegoPoker Hand Converter <font color="black">Stack Sizes</font> BB: $103.3 Hero (UTG): $425 UTG+1: $427.20 MP1: $400 MP2: $624.90 MP3: $307.70 CO: $394 BTN: $726 SB: $1030 <font color="black">Preflop:</font> 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($6, 9 players) Hero calls $4, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $4, MP3 folds, CO folds, BTN folds, SB calls $2, BB checks <font color="black">Flop:</font> A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($16, 4 players) SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $13</font>, MP2 folds, SB calls $13, BB folds <font color="black">Turn:</font> A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($42, 2 players) <font color="red">SB bets $30</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $100</font>, SB calls $70 <font color="black">River:</font> A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($242, 2 players) SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $200</font>, <font color="red">SB raises all in to $915</font>, Hero calls all in for $108 Uncalled bet of $607 returned to SB <font color="black">Results:</font> Hero had 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a full house, Fives full of Jacks) and won $855 SB had 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Jacks) Final Pot: $855.00 ($3.00 rake) Villain's river AF is surprisingly high compared to his AF for other postflop streets (river AF = 7) Given this information and the previous hand, is a value bet on this 3flush board a good idea? My thinking is that it's more than likely that my hand is good, but I would be in a pretty tough spot if I toss out a $200 vb and get c/r ai'd for the rest of villain's stack (which I found very possible due to his fairly tight pfr range, river action on the last hand we tangled, and his river check). Who's in favor of vb'ing here and who checks behind? Reasoning and comments please. Full Tilt Poker $2/$4 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game 7 Players LegoPoker Hand Converter <font color="black">Stack Sizes</font> Hero (BTN): $1304.40 SB: $394 BB: $631.9 UTG: $279.30 UTG+1: $720.40 MP1: $693.80 MP2: $666.20 <font color="black">Preflop:</font> 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($6, 7 players) UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, <font color="red">MP2 raises to $14</font>, Hero calls $14, SB folds, BB calls $10 <font color="black">Flop:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($44, 3 players) BB checks, MP2 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $36</font>, BB folds, MP2 calls $36 <font color="black">Turn:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] ($116, 2 players) MP2 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $90</font>, MP2 calls $90 <font color="black">River:</font> 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] ($296, 2 players) MP2 checks, Hero... |
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