#21
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Re: Straight out of Sklansky, boom headshot edition (200NL)
I raise to 135 unless I have seen villain stack off really easily. Generally i don't think you get paid off enough times for a shove to be more profitable than a smallish raise.
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#22
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Re: Straight out of Sklansky, boom headshot edition (200NL)
I like the 135-140 raise a lot, he will probably shove
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#23
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Re: Straight out of Sklansky, boom headshot edition (200NL)
i'm curious to know what is the worst hand that people who are advocating a small raise would call with in this situation. are you really calling with a 9, expecting a donk taking this line to have some trash diamond here on a regular basis?
i don't really even think its close, honestly. a) we have the nuts b) villain is a retard c) we have an agressive image, and have been agressive towards villain d) villain is taking a strong line that adds up to instashove for me. |
#24
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Re: Straight out of Sklansky, boom headshot edition (200NL)
I agree that an overbet shove prob wont get paid enough to make it more profitable than say a 140 raise,
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#25
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Re: Straight out of Sklansky, boom headshot edition (200NL)
betting 140 out of our 250 stack looks weaker than a shove? I don't think so. If we roughly guess that our 250 shove gets called 20% (I know its high, but for example sake), then then 140 bet needs to be called 16% more often to make the same profit. I just don't think that the case. Shove it in.
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#26
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Re: Straight out of Sklansky, boom headshot edition (200NL)
I'd shove, if your image is nutty in his eyes and he spews then he'll look you up with a 6d or something sometimes. Because ZOMG he has has a flush!!! These types of players do not like folding and in this spot his hand in his eyes is either a flush or not a flush. He's not thinking about 2nd, 3rd, or 4th nut flush.
In order for a push to be worse than a small raise he would need to fold more than 60% of his calling range of the small raise. The people who are advocating a raise to 135 or so, you think he's 2.5 times more likely to call that raise than a shove? |
#27
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Re: Straight out of Sklansky, boom headshot edition (200NL)
[ QUOTE ]
betting 140 out of our 250 stack looks weaker than a shove? I don't think so. [/ QUOTE ] That's the case if villain is a thinking player. Villain in this hand is not. |
#28
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Re: Straight out of Sklansky, boom headshot edition (200NL)
[ QUOTE ]
In order for a push to be worse than a small raise he would need to fold more than 60% of his calling range of the small raise. The people who are advocating a raise to 135 or so, you think he's 2.5 times more likely to call that raise than a shove? [/ QUOTE ] this is the method you want to use to determine best raise size. fwiw ive seen villains as described bluff the 4th diamond in spots like this (shoving still > minraising bc if they are folding they are doing so for any amount) if he has the diamond i doubt hes bet/folding in this spot vs you so just stick it in |
#29
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Re: Straight out of Sklansky, boom headshot edition (200NL)
Totally arbitrary but minraise prob has very similar ev to shove. And since you have been playing back at him a ton maybe it is higher than 30% Again totally arbitrary having not seen dynamics.
90% of 60 30% 180 |
#30
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Re: Straight out of Sklansky, boom headshot edition (200NL)
results: hero shoves
villain runs his 100 second timebank down to 5 seconds and folds wtf kjladhflkasdflkjh%$^%$&^%$%^$#^asdfasdfFASDFAS DF |
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