#1
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river bluff against flush draw
Villain is 78/17/0.75 Went to SD 40, total hands 56
Is river bet good? Party Poker, $0.10/$0.25 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter BTN: $15.20 SB: $23.40 BB: $29.47 UTG: $38.43 Hero (CO): $38.68 Pre-Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (CO) UTG calls $0.25, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls $1 Flop: ($2.85) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.25</font>, UTG calls $2.25 Turn: ($7.35) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players) UTG checks, Hero checks River: ($7.35) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, UTG folds Results: $7.35 Pot Hero mucked A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and WON $9.99 (+$6.49 NET) |
#2
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Re: river bluff against flush draw
I'd say with a VPIP + WtSD ratio like this villan is probably only going to SD with a pair (however poor) and A high at best. This river is a bluff against a calling station when all he needs is one of 15 of 47 remaining cards in the deck. The only hands that you beat are A6- or 8 high.
That said I would expect him to bet out at you with any piece of that board given an AF of 0.75 with a VPIP of 78. Not a value bet I'd be too keen to make. |
#3
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Re: river bluff against flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
I'd say with a VPIP + WtSD ratio like this villan is probably only going to SD with a pair (however poor) and A high at best. This river is a bluff against a calling station when all he needs is one of 15 of 47 remaining cards in the deck. The only hands that you beat are A6- or 8 high. That said I would expect him to bet out at you with any piece of that board given an AF of 0.75 with a VPIP of 78. Not a value bet I'd be too keen to make. [/ QUOTE ] WHA?? Villain doesnt like betting with that low af. |
#4
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Re: river bluff against flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'd say with a VPIP + WtSD ratio like this villan is probably only going to SD with a pair (however poor) and A high at best. This river is a bluff against a calling station when all he needs is one of 15 of 47 remaining cards in the deck. The only hands that you beat are A6- or 8 high. That said I would expect him to bet out at you with any piece of that board given an AF of 0.75 with a VPIP of 78. Not a value bet I'd be too keen to make. [/ QUOTE ] WHA?? Villain doesnt like betting with that low af. [/ QUOTE ] villans honesty (so to speak) is a function of VPIP vs AF. ie. a villan with VPIP 5 + AF 10 is probably not bs'ing as often as one thats 35 + AF 3 So .. with a VPIP of 5 you'd expect one to bet out quite often rather than flat call given the fact the the range dictated by a low VPIP is very strong. This guy is playing 78% of cards dealt and betting out on 75% of those hands after the flop... kinda fishy? Noone hits that often (given sample size is tiny and AF is not statistically significant). |
#5
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Re: river bluff against flush draw
.72af doesnt = 75% betting post flop LOLOLOLOLOL
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#6
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Re: river bluff against flush draw
.72 AF means he's betting / raising 72 times for every 100 times he calls. That is aggressive for someone with a high VPIP!
72/10/0.72 is playing marginal hands much more aggressively than a 20/10/0.72. |
#7
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Re: river bluff against flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
.72af doesnt = 75% betting post flop LOLOLOLOLOL [/ QUOTE ] Lose the attitude please. This is friendly forum and I'm just trying to learn. |
#8
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Re: river bluff against flush draw
obviously it worked. Want a cookie?
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#9
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Re: river bluff against flush draw
[ QUOTE ]
.72 AF means he's betting / raising 72 times for every 100 times he calls. That is aggressive for someone with a high VPIP! 72/10/0.72 is playing marginal hands much more aggressively than a 20/10/0.72. [/ QUOTE ] thats not how u calculate AF. And no he is very loooooooooooose passive with almost 0 aggression. You can |
#10
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Re: river bluff against flush draw
we beat a flush draw
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