#1
|
|||
|
|||
According to ICM: it\'s correct to fold AA on this bubble
According to ICM: it's correct to fold AA on this bubble
i ran into a weird situation and i want to know if my reasoning is correct 9 players SNG {.5,.3,.2} 4 players left, suppose everyone have the same stack 3375, blinds are 200/400 we are BB Co go all-in, Button calls, SB calls we have AA. My reasoning, We fold and we are against 1 winners (forget about split pot) Our stack 3375-BB=2900 ICM: .34 him 10125+BB=10525 ICM: .45 We Call and win they tourney ICM = .50 We loose on the bubble ICM = 0 So considering this, to make calling > folding we must have an equity superior than 68% .34 =< eq*.50 where eq =< 68% Well against all logical ranges it's impossible to get 68% against 3 players on this spot so good fold? |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
Re: According to ICM: it\'s correct to fold AA on this bubble
The thing is your equity is not 0 if you lose. You will be probably second (0.3), 3rd (0.2) or something in between in case of tie and very very very rarely 0.
This is an instacall, of course. |
#3
|
|||
|
|||
Re: According to ICM: it\'s correct to fold AA on this bubble
I´m sure the odds are better that I win the WSOP Main Event than anyone can prove folding Aces PF is the right play.
|
#4
|
|||
|
|||
Re: According to ICM: it\'s correct to fold AA on this bubble
thanks i forget that , but whats is the correct range for calling if opponent are decents
QQ+ ? |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
Re: According to ICM: it\'s correct to fold AA on this bubble
[ QUOTE ]
I´m sure the odds are better that I win the WSOP Main Event than anyone can prove folding Aces PF is the right play. [/ QUOTE ] Same situation but everyone have the same stack 3375 except you are the low-stack 3000$ Then Folding Aces is the correct play ... because you cannot finish second or third according to the rules ... |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
Re: According to ICM: it\'s correct to fold AA on this bubble
[ QUOTE ]
thanks i forget that , but whats is the correct range for calling if opponent are decents QQ+ ? [/ QUOTE ] If they are decent KK+ if they are regulars/good players I would just call here with AA. <font color="pink"> Nit4life </font> [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] |
#7
|
|||
|
|||
Re: According to ICM: it\'s correct to fold AA on this bubble
If multiple people go out with the same amount of chips does it go by best hand or does the prize just split? I think either way you can call a bit wider, like JJ+, and be pretty profitable.
|
#8
|
|||
|
|||
Re: According to ICM: it\'s correct to fold AA on this bubble
It looks like everything hinges one how 2nd, 3rd are paid (ties?)
If as previous poster stated you are not guarenteed a payout it could be a good fold. (i.e. you have one dollar less than everyone). If however you are a dollar ahead you would be guarenteed 2nd (which is where you would probably end up by folding anyway since you are now a big dog HU)and a favorite for 1st so push. I'm not counting splits or anything. Ultimately it would just be really hard not to fist pump, push and deal with whatever comes. |
#9
|
|||
|
|||
Re: According to ICM: it\'s correct to fold AA on this bubble
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I´m sure the odds are better that I win the WSOP Main Event than anyone can prove folding Aces PF is the right play. [/ QUOTE ] Same situation but everyone have the same stack 3375 except you are the low-stack 3000$ Then Folding Aces is the correct play ... because you cannot finish second or third according to the rules ... [/ QUOTE ] yah or if you had 16 chips and all three went in pf. i'd fold aces right thurrrrrrr. |
#10
|
|||
|
|||
Re: According to ICM: it\'s correct to fold AA on this bubble
If we give the Hero 9 chips less than the three others, would a fold be justified?
I don't think so, but it has become close than in OP's example. Maybe I would fold KK in that spot. Most certainly AKs and QQ... I think. |
|
|