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#61
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Also, you could have a look at the set-o-meter. [/ QUOTE ] Can you please explain how to get/filter poker EV to show that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#62
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Bottomset nailed it with his post(s).
55k is an incredible small sample size, contrary to popular belief. If my calculations are correct, if your standard deviation/100 hands is 28BB/100 (look in PT), then after 55k hands you are going to be +/- 2.39BB/100 of your expectation (based on 2 standard deviations, of which you will be in 95% of the time). Also, I too recommend checking out the flop-a-set-o-meter program. It will show you how many times you ran KK into AA (and vice versa) and how many times you flopped set-under-set (and vice versa). |
#63
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[ QUOTE ] Also, you could have a look at the set-o-meter. [/ QUOTE ] Can you please explain how to get/filter poker EV to show that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] It is a completely different program. Google it. |
#64
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Also, you could have a look at the set-o-meter. [/ QUOTE ] Can you please explain how to get/filter poker EV to show that [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] It is a completely different program. Google it. [/ QUOTE ] I am not sure if i qualify but.. Bottomset and 1pokerboy are on the money. A steady 2.5 bb/100 over 100k sample could have you at around 4 bb/100 or 0.5 bb/100 depending on how the cards come. Okay this is at the extreme 1/20 (95%) of probable results, but 1/20 is really not improbable nor that extreme, there are more than 20 regular posters per day on this forum. 1 of those posters could therefore reasonably expect to be a VERY long way from their actual win rate over a seemingly large sample size (100k) Extend this and consider a extremely high confidence limit 0.99%, given the traffic posters might fall into the extreme results category of 100k hands.. so 150k sample size is actually not that much.. cue cries of 'holy [censored].. this game is crazy'. PokerEV is good but unreliable for the reasons outlined. You can play a hand extremely well and pokerev can tell you its -SKbucks. Likewise you can play a hand extremely poorly and pokerEV can tell u its +SKbucks. Example: calling 1/3 of your stack with a lower pocket pair pre, hitting your set on the flop and getting AI for the remaining third. This is a +SKbucks move.. 2/3 of the money goes in with you a solid fav, compared to 1/3 with you a dog. So PokerEV tells u this play is good!! huh!! so take it with a pinch of salt. If you really want to see how you are running you gotta use setometer and pokerev and common sense. Also, FWIW looking at position stats from a 25k total sample is meaningless as you only have 3k per position and i think we would all advocate that as a small sample size. |
#65
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Yeah, I always eyplain it like this:
One three-way all-in at NL 400 that you lose with AA or suck out with KK is a difference of $1200 = 150 PTBB. If you play 25 K hands it will make a difference of 0.60 on your PTBB/100 rate. And this is just one hand out of 25000 hands... |
#66
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Well, FWIW, this post gives me hope as I've been lamenting a 37k .25 ptbb run. And I know I'm making some glaring mistakes...working on correcting them... This game is just maddening! I consider Renton to be one of the best players at these higher levels, so if it can happen to him, it can happen to anyone. I didn't realize just how zany the standard deviations are for nl poker.
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#67
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[ QUOTE ] Well, there's no shame in limping once in a while. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] From memory, very few (if any) of the most profitable players have such a high PFR% (at least at $1/$2- I'm not so familiar with $2/$4.) (Also, most of the players that do have a high PFR% are losing players.) Obviously there is no single optimum VP$IP/PFR% combination but I'd certainly recommend experimenting with closer to a single digit PFR%. [/ QUOTE ] wow..this is completely wrong...ignore it if you want to ever be above 2 ptbb/100 at 2/4 [/ QUOTE ] Ignore it if you want to ever be above 2 ptBB/100 at Heads Up Pot Limit Omaha too. |
#68
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Ok I downloaded that program but don't know how to makes heads or tails of the graph. If the blue intersects the mid-point of the peak of the graph would that mean you'd flopped a set exactly as often as you should? I've flopped 119 sets from 1128 flops with a pair. I think that's fractionally under expectation.
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#69
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Narena, what is your ptbb/100 at NL400?
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Well, there's no shame in limping once in a while. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] From memory, very few (if any) of the most profitable players have such a high PFR% (at least at $1/$2- I'm not so familiar with $2/$4.) (Also, most of the players that do have a high PFR% are losing players.) Obviously there is no single optimum VP$IP/PFR% combination but I'd certainly recommend experimenting with closer to a single digit PFR%. [/ QUOTE ] wow..this is completely wrong...ignore it if you want to ever be above 2 ptbb/100 at 2/4 [/ QUOTE ] Ignore it if you want to ever be above 2 ptBB/100 at Heads Up Pot Limit Omaha too. [/ QUOTE ] |
#70
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