#11
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Re: $50 check my FE
Right i just solved this to get the general solution, but i'm not sure it's right.
assumption 1: he calls a 3flush river with the same frequency that he calls my shove on the turn. (not true but massively simplifying) assumption 2: i can't win the hand unless i hit a flush. assumption 3: i never bluff the river if i miss (not true lol). if someone could check this i'd be very happy.. x = calling frequency EV of checking = [0.2((x*$10)+$15)] = 2x + 3 EV of shoving = x[(0.2*$35)-$10] + (1-x)*$15 = -3x + 15 - 15x EV of shoving = 5 - 6x grapically: this suggests that shoving and checking have equal value at a calling frequency of 25% - if he calls more than that and checking has more value. the thing that concerns me is that shoving is profitable until he calls 85% of the time. if someone could check this using whatever method they normally use to check FE that would be really awesome. |
#12
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Re: $50 check my FE
Yeah there's a tiny mistake in the shove EV.
[ QUOTE ] EV of shoving = x[(0.2*$35)-$10] + (1-x)*$15 = -3x + 15 - 15x [/ QUOTE ] It's actually EV of shoving = x[(0.2*$25)-$10] + (1-x)*$15 = 15-20x. So a shove is +EV if he folds at least 25% of the time, and is better than checking if x < 12/22 ~ 55%, ie if he folds at least 45%. |
#13
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Re: $50 check my FE
[ QUOTE ]
So a shove is +EV if he folds at least 25% of the time, and is better than checking if x < 12/22 ~ 55%, ie if he folds at least 45%. [/ QUOTE ] no chance imo. |
#14
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Re: $50 check my FE
I really think there is no way he is folding here almost 1/2 the time. Nothing has changed from the flop to the turn from villain's perspective and he is short stacked on top of that.
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#15
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Re: $50 check my FE
x=call %
0=x[(his equity=~.75)($you lose by calling=-10.10)+(your equity=~.25)($you win=24.6)]+(1-x)[24.6] 0=x[-7.575+6.15]+24.6-24.6x 0=-1.425x+24.6-24.6x 26.025x=24.6 x=24.6/26.025 x=.93 he has to call >93% to make shoving -EV. It depends some on what you think his equity when he calls is, but shoving can't be bad. |
#16
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Re: $50 check my FE
check
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#17
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Re: $50 check my FE
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#18
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Re: $50 check my FE
Why are we assuming all of our outs are good? and what hands call flop and fold this turn
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#19
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Re: $50 check my FE
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So a shove is +EV if he folds at least 25% of the time, and is better than checking if x < 12/22 ~ 55%, ie if he folds at least 45%. [/ QUOTE ] no chance imo. [/ QUOTE ] Agree, he's so short, he prob won't fold JJ here just because he wants to gamble probably.. just check and stack him on the river. |
#20
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Re: $50 check my FE
[ QUOTE ]
and what hands call flop and fold this turn [/ QUOTE ] Gutshots, the odd stubborn pp and maybe sometimes A5 and below Prob not the required 45% given OP's assumptions |
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