#11
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Re: 400nl deep bluff
Looks like a blocker bet with QQ, TT. Your shove represents AK, which does conform with your line. I dont think there are too many hands other than JJ hes calling with here OOP. I like the shove.
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#12
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Re: 400nl deep bluff
[ QUOTE ]
keik, you don't think he has a J ever and you also don't think we can call?? [/ QUOTE ] sorry.... forgot about counterfeiting..... which leans it a little toward calling i still don't think calling w a J is good here... i mean AK is a reasonable hand for you (even w turn ch) |
#13
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Re: 400nl deep bluff
looks good
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#14
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Re: 400nl deep bluff
lets say his range is QQ/AJ/JTs/TT-88 (reasonable imo), and assume he folds QQ 60% and Jx 40%. lets compare call vs. shove.
36 combos of TT-88, 24 combos of QQ/AJ/JTs so: Call EV: +$510 x 60% + -$170 x 40% = +$238 Shove EV: +$510 x (60% + (20% x 60%) + (20% x 40%)) + (-$548.10 x (20% x 40% + 20% x 60%) = +$298.38 dunno what a realistic fold % would be but if we assume he folds QQ and Jx w/ the same frequency, he needs to fold about 35.7% of the time to make it as much EV as calling. |
#15
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Re: 400nl deep bluff
People saying QQ: You think he expects OP to call w/ A high often enough to be value betting QQ on the river? Seems unlikely.
I agree with OP that villain has a J like over 75% of the time. That being said, I really don't know if it's a good bluff or not. I think I like it though. |
#16
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Re: 400nl deep bluff
I agree that calling has a lot of merit here for obvious reasons but you can easily rep AK here with this line, and make him fold QQ, so shoving is much better IMO. nh.
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#17
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Re: 400nl deep bluff
If I were villain i'd call w/ a J. That being said I don't think villain has a J that often - I mean is he expecting hands like QQ, AK, AA to: a) bet the turn (as opposed to checking behind); and b) call a CR? I would think a J would raise the flop and/or lead turn.
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