JJ for advanced players -> PL 25

TheBad · #1 11-06-2007, 04:49 PM

Watch an expert play JJ @ PL25:

Villain was 66/33 after a large samplesize of 3 hands.

PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Hero ($30.35)
MP2 ($31.40)
MP3 ($20.10)
CO ($4.30)
Button ($13.75)
SB ($19.55)
BB ($24.15)
UTG ($34.85)
UTG+1 ($25.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1, 3 folds, Button raises to $3.6, 2 folds, UTG folds, Hero calls $2.60.

 OMG ! A shortie-3-bet. What am i supposed to do ? Easy: Obvious villain´s range is AK/AA/KK. Bad shape 12 times, reasonable shape 16 times. Don´really have the Odds to call for set value.. Here is the plan: Call and push (well, bet potsize) any non A or K flop except there is a Jack then always push.

Flop: ($7.80) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $7.45, Button raises to $10.15, Hero calls $2.70.

LOL @ Minraise ! (I guess i am toast)

Turn: ($28.10) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: ($28.10) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $28.10 

I like my play but feel bad about it. Is this +EV ?

Sounded Simple · #2 11-06-2007, 04:58 PM

Readless Id perhaps add QQ into a default range but meh, your guessing anyway.

If you really assign this range then for me its auto-fold preflop, sure it sucks folding JJ vs a shortie but if thats your read on a standard PL25 player then trust it.

Horrible thing is when you make a laydown like this against an unknown then her turns out to be a 70/30/12 spewtard!

RapidEvolution · #3 11-06-2007, 05:03 PM

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

585,607,968 games 0.005 secs 117,121,593,600 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.876% 45.83% 01.04% 268395396 6112398.00 { JJ }
Hand 1: 53.124% 52.08% 01.04% 304987776 6112398.00 { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Fold to the 3bet preflop, IMO. You're behind a likely range, and don't have any implied odds. On flop, he's raising his stack, but you're getting odds to hit your 2 outer if there's any chance he's bluffing with AK so call

TheBad · #4 11-06-2007, 07:50 PM

Oh villain surprised me with 55 so i have to wonder if my play was that bad [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

AlexB182 · #5 11-06-2007, 07:52 PM

Was it CDL how wrote that great Pooh - Bah post on "Crushing shortstacks"? Read it, it's very good!

P.S.: Do you have stats on villain? I would even like a PF shove here...

Split Suit · #6 11-06-2007, 08:03 PM

i think CMAR wrote that crushing shortstacks article

reguardless...this is pretty bad OP. if his range is rly that snug pf, then ur folding there. u have no IO, and this "crazy advanced" play u have invented (called a StopNGo) is as good as burning money with napalm. u rly think a 25player is going to think, "wow, zomg, he totally just potted it here, he totally must have a hand that beats my super hand...i shud fold!"? cuz they wont. and urll throw away money at insane rates

so...dont b results oriented, and either get the ranges more correct pf, or fold it there

TheBad · #7 11-06-2007, 09:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]

so...dont b results oriented, and either get the ranges more correct pf, or fold it there

[/ QUOTE ]

I´m posting to find out what the correct range/thinking is. I thought AK+. He thought 55 is good. So, against an unknown villain with 66/33 after a whooping 3 hands, what is his range ? Usually villain minraises AA not to loose any customer.

Sounded Simple · #8 11-07-2007, 04:59 AM

You can select in PAHUD a certain number of hands that the villan has played before his stats pop up.
I like 10 and Im not putting too much faith in the stats until at least 50+.

As for the default range I err on the side of caution when Im new to a table because -
- It keeps variance low, always good when starting a session.
- It creates a nitty image which for me is good since I like stealing lots of limped pots etc. (Opposite thinking would also be valid here though - create a loose image for value betting later).