$235 6-man [censored] me with a chainsaw

[TruFloridaGator]

Call callll

[Slim Pickens]

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PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 (3 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

Button (t505)
SB (t6365)
Hero (t2130)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to t2200</font>, Hero?

Villian has been pretty active since he had a stack.

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I think that's the first time I've ever seen SNGWhiz get the "xx call Diff%" axis lower limit down to -25%. As I suspected, it's a fold and it's not really all that close.

[Slim Pickens]

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Reads? Do you think he's pushing NE2? He has to be pushing more than 73% for a call to be good. Obviously he should be on any 2.

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If he's got any clue, he's not on any two. He can fold all day and continue to pwn with the short stack around. The more the blinds go up, the more prize pool he can take from suzzer each orbit.

[eurythmech]

SNG Wiz says what now?

I get we need to win 75.12% or something like that, JJ is 77.47% vs a random hand.

What pushing range did you assign?

[Slim Pickens]

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SNG Wiz says what now?

I get we need to win 75.12% or something like that, JJ is 77.47% vs a random hand.

What pushing range did you assign?

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I'm sure we're looking at the same plot. I've just noticed how wide the axis auto-scaled. Sure, it's a +$EV call if you're sure he's pushing any two but...

a) if he's smart enough to know he is +$EV to be pushing any two, he's usually also smart enough to see an obvious bubble-crushing situation and thus fold the bottom end of his range to preserve the massively +$EV opportunities in later hands and

b) if you're wrong about him pushing very wide, the call gets really bad really fast.

[eurythmech]

I'm not looking at any plots, maybe I should buy Wiz [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Also, he can push 32o, let us know he's pushing ATC, and still have us fold &gt; 98% of our range. How can he possibly crush the bubble worse than this?

[MikeMcQ1]

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Calling is profitable if SB is on ATC - which he should be.

ICM Nash Calculator Results

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Thanks for posting that link. I didn't read it because I know the numbers and I guarantee you Suzzer knows the numbers as well. I'm pretty sure Suzzer's question is more about judging the pusher's range.

*We* all know can profitably be shoving ATC, but most people don't anything about that.

edit: like Slim said, there are other factors we can determine besides raw ICM numbers in a vacuum. LOL at "easy call"

[AMT]

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b) if you're wrong about him pushing very wide, the call gets really bad really fast.

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from SNGPT im getting that he has to be pushing less than 50% of hands for this to become -EV.

[MikeMcQ1]

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b) if you're wrong about him pushing very wide, the call gets really bad really fast.

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from SNGPT im getting that he has to be pushing less than 50% of hands for this to become -EV.

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I didn't plug in 50% yet but 75% is +.02. And if you knew you had that edge, would you call? I wouldn't. Not with shorty in his situation and will have half his stack in next hand.

[AMT]

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b) if you're wrong about him pushing very wide, the call gets really bad really fast.

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from SNGPT im getting that he has to be pushing less than 50% of hands for this to become -EV.

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I didn't plug in %50 yet but %75 is +.02. And if you knew you had that edge, would you call? I wouldn't. Not with shorty in his situation and will have half his stack in next hand.

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i wonder why, on 75% i get +0.8. I dont have min edge on....no antes... I get +0.2 on 50%