#1
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I suck at prop bets
I'm playing my live 1-2NL and this regular I know who has some of the dumbest ideas about hand equity suggests a bet. We agree for a $5 bet per hand.
- Any Ace or King comes on the board at any point in the hand, he wins. Otherwise, I win. The best part is that he agrees for payment for any hand that sees at least the flop. I lose about $110 on this bet in about 4 hours. Was I running bad or do I fail at maths BBV? |
#2
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Re: I suck at prop bets
you got hustled, even the dealer was in on it.
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#3
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Re: I suck at prop bets
post this in the probablilty fourm. Only saying this cause i would like to know the real anwser.
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#4
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Re: I suck at prop bets
do math
5 cards dealt x 2 winners for him = 10 10 out of 13 possible cards you fail |
#5
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Re: I suck at prop bets
This is a very interesting prop as the odds of seeing subsequent cards are influenced by the hole cards. To what degree, I don't know. For example, someone holding Ax, where they pair their x on the flop is more likely to chase to the river for two pair.
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#6
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Re: I suck at prop bets
hustled
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#7
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Re: I suck at prop bets
[ QUOTE ]
hustled [/ QUOTE ] |
#8
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Re: I suck at prop bets
I completely do not understand this. If there are 5 chances for a 8/52 to come out, shouldn't it be a 40/52 by the river? And considering all the times the hand would end with just the 3 flop cards, wouldn't I have an edge?
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#9
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Re: I suck at prop bets
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] hustled [/ QUOTE ] [/ QUOTE ] He's a 3-2 favorite. Good job, donkey. |
#10
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Re: I suck at prop bets
He will win this ~58% of the time. This is awsome because you can rationalize "If you have AK, you are only 50/50 to pair one of the cards."
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