200 NL: OESD + FD + nuts draw still less than set?

[icetea123]

Hello. I know mp2 is loose/aggressive, and that given the action, UTG+1 must be a donkey.

Nice flop, but given mp2's raise, I know he has a set. If i had 100 bb, i would shove. With zero fold equity, and more than 100 bb, i prefer not to get it AI. However, should I worry about a stronger FD out there?

Turn, more donkish action, and then huge shove from the set protecting from my obvious draw. I'm getting almost exact odds to call 2-1 vs my 25-30% equity hand, and I don't know if the donkey will call as well...

So, shove my draw into a set to fold out other FD's? Or don't worry about them. And call turn or fold (does donkey's action on turn matter?)

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $212.05
BB: $26.00
UTG: $42.00
UTG+1: $196.60
MP1: $183.90
MP2: $348.30
CO: $202.30
Hero (BTN): $265.95

Preflop: Hero is dealt 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">UTG+1 raises to $6.00</font>, MP1 calls $6.00, MP2 calls $6.00, CO folds, Hero calls $6.00, SB calls $5.00, BB folds

Flop: ($32) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">UTG+1 bets $12.00</font>, MP1 calls $12.00, <font color="red">MP2 raises to $50.00</font>, Hero calls $50.00, SB folds, UTG+1 calls $38.00, MP1 folds

Turn: ($194) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">UTG+1 bets $30.00</font>, <font color="red">MP2 raises all-in to $292.30</font>, Hero ??? is annoyed

[KurtSF]

Yeah, on the turn you are wayyyyyy behind and can fold now.

If you don't want to have to fold these monster draws sometimes you have to push them on the flop. This is defo a fold to me.

[skibbel]

Board: 5c Jh 7c 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.455% 70.45% 00.00% 186 0.00 { 77, 55 }
Hand 1: 29.545% 29.55% 00.00% 78 0.00 { 6c4c }

=&gt; Instantcall, given the possibility UTG+1 calls too.
You need ~1:2.8 you get ~1:2.75, UTG+1 might call and boost your pot equity so call.

[FireStorm]

Shove the flop, if you're not willing to do this then take this out of the preflop playbook. As played, now that you have whiffed the turn and Equitytown is one exit the opposite way down the interstate, fold.

[Mike Kelley]

100% I Fhove slop

[icetea123]

[ QUOTE ]
Shove the flop, if you're not willing to do this then take this out of the preflop playbook. As played, now that you have whiffed the turn and Equitytown is one exit the opposite way down the interstate, fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

thanks, but blanket statements like these aren't very helpful. I'm very willing to shove the flop, IF i'm first in.

I know that i'm only a 40/60 at worst case scenario, but shoving into a set just feels dirty. i guess the main question is, how many bb deep do i have to be to consider anything aside from shoving?

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]
Board: 5c Jh 7c 9h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.455% 70.45% 00.00% 186 0.00 { 77, 55 }
Hand 1: 29.545% 29.55% 00.00% 78 0.00 { 6c4c }

=&gt; Instantcall, given the possibility UTG+1 calls too.
You need ~1:2.8 you get ~1:2.75, UTG+1 might call and boost your pot equity so call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Add 8cTc into his range and tell me how you're doing then.

Mutiway does not make it better. The fact that some donk is in the hand also makes it less likely your non-nut straight and flush outs are still good (ie, crap like JT and A-rag clubs are very likely for a crap player in this hand and they eat up your outs like mad.

[jetsetboy]

Such an obvious push on flop. 100bb or 130bb doesn't change much here. U are not folding here and there is allready enough dead money in the pot. Furthermore if you are facing a non nuts fd u can make him fold which is really a good thing.

[Albert Moulton]

As played, fold the turn.

Pushing the flop with an OESFD is rarely wrong by much even when it is wrong.

But, if you wanted to peel one off and see what the turn brings, then that's fine, too. If you peel, however, your best turn cards are non-flushes that make a straight since any big action on a club turn will pot-commit you with what might very well be a lower flush.

Having called on the flop and missed the turn, however, you should fold when you miss and have to pay too much to see the river, as in the OP.

[coordi]

I'd deffinately shove over on the flop. Good for you image and etc to be shoving draws like this, plus even if its -EV, its just slightly so. So when you shove over your top set on a drawy board like this and villain has 2pr or whatever, he will seriously consider paying you off.

As played, its a pretty easy fold. If you call, then UTG will call with any draws that trump yours. Its a pretty much lose lose situation.