NL50 - AA 200BB deep

[DaycareInferno]

i'm not neccessarily saying that i shove here, but i think its crazy to say that we only get called by hands that beat us, or anything even close to that. most randoms stack off with all the same crap whether its 100b or 200b.

[sightless]

[ QUOTE ]
100bb deep: flop shove good.
200bb deep: not so much.

Reason:
Only one worse hand in villain's range can be expected to call - QQ.
Sometimes he will fold even that.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are right. getting it on turn is much better

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
100bb deep: flop shove good.
200bb deep: not so much.

Reason:
Only one worse hand in villain's range can be expected to call - QQ.
Sometimes he will fold even that.

[/ QUOTE ]

you are right. getting it on turn is much better

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. If we are going to felt this hand villain we should give villain some room to [censored] up.

[Chomp]

[ QUOTE ]
OP, I really think that pf your 3 bet, especially OOP and this deep, needs to be something like 5x his raise, so around ~$10 or something. And if you judge that your 3 bet might even be nudged up to like $12 without inducing villain to play correctly (fold < KK+), then go for it.

Once we get to the flop, I strongly favor checking that particular texture this deep and OOP. It's such a clear WA/WB scenario to me, and I'd rather check-call two streets, inducing action from hands like QQ (maybe AJs? and 'slowplayed' KK obv) and occasionally some random hand he took a gamble with pre, or have the flop checked through and lead/re-eval the turn between 1/2 and 2/3 pot. I'm not going to fret about getting two-outered if no betting occurs on the flop.

As played, you're in a terrible spot and have to guess if villain flatted KK pre so he could trap (!) a c-bet / stack you on a non-A flop, if he has a set (maybe even 99), is a retard with QQ (meh), or is making a move (least likely, readless.)

Holdem Ranger says, for a range that takes villain's exact line against you, which I've construed as [JJ, 99, KK(33% of the time), QQ(15%), AJs(25%), QT(10%)] that your equity after his flop raise is ~40%.

So you can pot-odds it and take whatever line maximizes EV, and I'll just guess that folding can't be too large a mistake. Someone please correct this final assumption, if need be.

[/ QUOTE ]


Very nice post Khumalo.

[TheRenaissance]

[ QUOTE ]
most randoms stack off with all the same crap whether its 100b or 200b.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. But villain does not seem like a total idiot given his stats so far (yes I know it is only 30 hands). To treat him like a complete unknown is a mistake IMO. And calling and letting him bet the turn for us seems like a much better line than pushing flop.

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
Exactly. If we are going to felt this hand villain we should give villain some room to [censored] up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Amen.

[.xxxx.]

is 200BB really so deep that we're going to fold aces in fear of sets?

btw villain's RR on the flop is very dependent on how you're currently running/your cb freq/flow of game/blind steal history between you two

[Subzero_Wins]

You guys say you wanna give them room to "censored" up, but you're just going to end up in an extremely tough spot or losing value when a T, J, Q, K or A peels. That's way too much of the deck.

They really going to screw around on a 69TJ, 69JQ, 69JK, or 68JA board? Are you going to feel good felting on a 69JQ or 69JK board?

And seriously who raises QQ/KK/AJ here and then folds getting 3:1?

[yegon]

My main concern is that this deep he can play any pair for set value profitably and on a low card flop I will have a hard time deciding if he has a set or an overpair. Obviously I can not and probably shouldnot size ma pfr to take away the set odds so how do I go about this possibility?