NL 100 - AQ in SB vs Aggro Blind Stealer on Button (+/-EV?)

[Sandviper23]

The BTN is a 47/12 with a 30 Att. Blind Steal with only 80 hands recorded.


Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $120.00
Hero (BB): $101.00
UTG: $97.15
UTG+1: $98.50
MP1: $43.25
MP2: $108.35
MP3: $51.70
CO: $118.05
BTN: $100.50

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9 Players)
3 folds, MP2 calls $1.00, MP3 calls $1.00, CO folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $4.00</font>, SB calls $3.50, <font color="red">Hero raises to $16.00</font>, 2 folds, BTN calls $12.00, SB folds

Flop: ($38) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets $20.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $85.00</font>


+/- EV Play?

[LaggyTaggy]

I see most of his range calling here, TT-AA, only worse/even hands folding out, AK/AQ... little too risky for my blood

[Sandviper23]

the player is pretty loose, seems to have alot bigger range than that.
I put him on any pocket pair, big to medium suited cards, or two big unsuited cards.

[Larude]

This doesn't look like a blind steal to me, he is raising 4? It looks more like a positional raise to me. Reraise is good IMHO, he calls that so it looks like he has somewhat of a hand. I like your flopplay, check folding or check calling are to weak. Betting makes you also practically potcommitted. Checkraise is the best approach to take, nice hand sir.

[oakrdrzfan]

Have you seen him call any AI's before? How about calling a big 3 bet pf? I am ok with the hand preflop. I don't like the CRAI though. YOu might get looked up more often than you think. He already has invested 1/3 of his stack, so your FE might be lower than you think. There are better ways to stack an Agg donk like this.

[Sandviper23]

Here is the rest of the hand.

<font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $85.00</font>, BTN calls all-in for $64.50
Uncalled bet of $0.50 returned to Hero

Turn: ($207) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players - 2 All-In)

River: ($207) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players - 2 All-In)

Pot Size: $207.00 ($3 Rake)

BTN had J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (two pair, Jacks and Fours) and WON (+$103.50)
Hero had Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a pair of Fours) and LOST (-$100.50)

[oakrdrzfan]

Ouch. Note it and move on.

I dont like getting felted with A high. Sometimes it is better to get a hand with these guys and play rope a dope.

Or do the same with an overpair next time, just not 2 overcards and a gut shot.

You have to make up a lot of pots of winning his $20 flop bet to make up for losing a stack on these.

I think these plays are -EV

[jetsetboy]

Against anybody but a regular nit this move is slightly Ev+. AK &gt;&gt;&gt; AQ in this spot by the way.