$6.50 two hands bubble play

[chewbaka]

Hand 1

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button (t6493)
SB (t2330)
Hero (t2892)
UTG (t1785)

Preflop: Hero is BB with As Qs
1 fold, Button raises to t4400, 1 fold, Hero ???

Hand 2

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Button (t420)
SB (t5800)
Hero (t840)
UTG (t6440)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Ad 6d
UTG raises to t800, 2 folds, Hero ???

[johnnyknish]

call the all in on the first, fold the second

[dj32]

I think the second hand is a really tough spot. Johnny - are you suggesting we fold everything except something like QQ+, AK+, and hope the button blinds out before us?

[raise_happy]

i'm pretty sure that the first hand is an easy all-in.

the second hand i'm not sure if i'm too weak, but i would fold, because there is the chance that the button blinds out before us and even if you double up your chances to get 1st or 2nd (when down to 3) won't increase that much with 1600 chips. if you bust now you loose everything.

if your stack was bigger and if an all-in would instead greatly increase your chances to get 1st or 2nd place i would push.

[CheeseMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm pretty sure that the first hand is an easy all-in.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure you mean "call" instead of "all-in", and I'm pretty sure you'd be way wrong to call this in a 6.5. Its hugely -EV if the guys pushing less than 50% of all hands, and if he's pushing 23o its less than the .3 minimum edge I'm willing to take in a 6.5, where donks make mistakes left and right at the bubble. I would only call if I knew his hand has an ace in it. In other words, hand 1 is a pretty clear fold.

[BradleyT]

First hand he needs to be pushing 60% for it to be +.1%.

22+,A2+,K2+,Q2+,J5o+,J2s+,T7o+,T5s+,98o,96s+,87s

Unless you know he's a bully he's probably not pushing the lower ends of Q2,J5,J2s, etc.. which makes this a fold.

[CheeseMoney]

BTW, I think hand 2 is a close fold, as he has to be minraising about > 40% to make this a decently + EV call, moving beyond ICM a little bit you have to factor in that the shortest stack will be in huge trouble if you let this go. There's a decent shot that shortie will be all in 3 way, and his chances of surviving that are worse than your chances of surviving heads up vs the big stack.

[shakyamuni]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i'm pretty sure that the first hand is an easy all-in.


[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure you mean "call" instead of "all-in", and I'm pretty sure you'd be way wrong to call this in a 6.5. Its hugely -EV if the guys pushing less than 50% of all hands, and if he's pushing 23o its less than the .3 minimum edge I'm willing to take in a 6.5, where donks make mistakes left and right at the bubble. I would only call if I knew his hand has an ace in it. In other words, hand 1 is a pretty clear fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed - Hand 1 he's got to be raising wider than 50% - fold it...

Hand 2 UTG has to be min-raising like 35% to make it ev neutral (40% for any real edge)- read might help....

at this point it might be better to see if the other shorty busts, he'll be all in, in the bb in two hands...

[NoSetNoBet]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm pretty sure that the first hand is an easy all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

You cannot go all-in in the first hand, but rather you can only call or fold, and this makes a huge difference on the bubble. This is an easy fold. Had the big stack folded, it would be an easy open-push. In this spot you should be pushing wide and calling very narrow, especially against the one stack who has you covered.

[BradleyT]

Yeah hand 1 is definitely one where you need to visualize a line chart.

Best - 100% = +.3%
Neutral - 55% = 0%
Bad - 22+,A2s+,A3o+,KTs+, KJo+,QJs+ = -1.6%
Worst - TT+ = -10.8%
OMFG - AA+ = -18.7%