n00b variance question

Heisenb3rg · #1 08-27-2007, 07:04 AM

Dropped 3500$ in 2/5 NL live in a fairly short period of time... probabily like 1-2k hands or so (7 buyins ish).

How bad of a downswing is that in NL terms???

What kind of bankroll do you normally need for these games?

Grunch · #2 08-27-2007, 10:36 AM

7 buyins in 2k hands is pretty much normal variance. I mean it's not unusual for a good player to lose that much that fast.

Typically however, if a good player loses that much that fast, it's because he was playing like crap. People blame variance for their results too much, when they should be taking accountability for them.

Surf · #3 08-27-2007, 02:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
7 buyins in 2k hands is pretty much normal variance. I mean it's not unusual for a good player to lose that much that fast.

Typically however, if a good player loses that much that fast, it's because he was playing like crap. People blame variance for their results too much, when they should be taking accountability for them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with both of these. 7 BIs is "normal variance" but it seems whenever I drop 7BIs and I look over my hands in PT I can find usually 1-2BIs worth of tilt / stackings that didn't need to happen.

I would take a fine-toothed comb to your game after dropping 7BIs regardless of track record / ability, but especially so if you are relatively new to NL, because the obvious answer is that you could almost certainly be playing better.

Surf

Robin Foolz · #4 08-27-2007, 05:13 PM

he's talking about live nl and not online nl. do ya'lls advice change any now?

heis, were you putting in a lot of money in drawing dead or as a significant dog? or was it just suckouts? i think, assuming a goot player, the former generally indicates playing poorly (maybe your reads are whack) while the latter generally indicates running poorly (and, yes, generally you can do both).

Heisenb3rg · #5 08-27-2007, 05:26 PM

I know I played poorly for sure and its not just variance..
Im just curious what is normal variance... (BTW online 6-max variance should be much higher.. if you guys are considering that)

I have been putting a lot of money drawing dead/thin... (But I cant count how many times ive folded TPTK+ HU/3-way as well).

Part of the running bad is like, literally 70%+ of the time I hit TPTK , someone outflops me.. Almost everytime I c-bet, it gets raised or floated. Stuff that makes you play bad because the frequency of these events makes you assume "they have to be messing with me" when it's really just a [censored] run of events.
Forcing you to adjust incorrectly because you feel pushed over.

Like after your c-bet gets floated 4 times in a row, firing two barrels when you shouldn't...

In NL because so little showdowns are seen , it's hard to figure if you are just getting outflopped constantly, or you are getting pushed over..
How else are you supposed to counter this, other than looking people up light?

sethypooh21 · #6 08-27-2007, 05:29 PM

C-bet less.

From some of the hands you've posted/discussed, I think you have a tendency to get too trixy preflop which is leading to a lot of marginal post flop decisions. Have you read PNL yet? I'd suggest it, just for some general advice about preflop bet sizing which will make post flop play much cleaner for you.

Heisenb3rg · #7 08-27-2007, 05:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
C-bet less.

From some of the hands you've posted/discussed, I think you have a tendency to get too trixy preflop which is leading to a lot of marginal post flop decisions. Have you read PNL yet? I'd suggest it, just for some general advice about preflop bet sizing which will make post flop play much cleaner for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well ive only posted like 2 hands, one was just an excellent PF read that allowed me to get over half my stack in PF with KK vs AT [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

But I think your right I defitily need to work on my PF raise sizing...
I noticed where im losing a lot of money is with the broadway offsuit hands..

IE I have a stack of 700$

One bad limper limps
I raise AJo on the button to like 30$ to isolate HU
... unsuspectedly both blinds call.

Pot is now 120$ and if I hit top pair, Im going to have risk a fair bit to see a showdown.. I cant really pot control cause of the mutliway nature of the situation.. etc.

Also c-betting boards like 227 is probabily correct, but still not too profitable.

Had I got it HU, then it would be fine since I can use my positional control and the pot would be a lot smaller.

A lot of PF mistakes like that thats giving me tough decisions with top pair..
Not really sure how to avoid them though... propbabily should be isolate raising less with AJo, KQo type hands??

Although it really feels like every hand is a setup.. If I were getting these hands HU, I feel I can play them fine.. But they keep going multiway when I have no read that I should suspect multiway.... Meaning SB and BB are normally super tight...

PNL is sitting at home waiting for me when I get back to toronto (2 days).. Think im done with NL for this trip and hit up a little bellagio 30/60 tonight.

sethypooh21 · #8 08-27-2007, 06:12 PM

Yeah, from what I've heard about live NL, $30 is a bad amount to raise, as the blinds are calling anything they would have called $15-20 with. Make it $50 if you want huhu, would be my advice.

(Also, on a flop that comes Axx, check behind the flop. Yeah, free cards, but any reasonable draw has a good chance of playing you off TPMK on the flop anyway, so keep it small, and valuebet safe-looking turns...)

Nick C · #9 08-27-2007, 06:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
(BTW online 6-max variance should be much higher.. if you guys are considering that)

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm wondering how accurate this is. (I genuinely don't know, but it is a question, I think.)

The casino players are going to be far worse than online players at the same limits, I know, but there is this to consider as well: From what I've seen, live play can get pretty goddamn wild at times, with preflop raises to like 8-10x the BB becoming the table standard that occurs in nearly every hand.

Heisenb3rg · #10 08-27-2007, 06:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(BTW online 6-max variance should be much higher.. if you guys are considering that)

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm wondering how accurate this is. (I genuinely don't know, but it is a question, I think.)

The casino players are going to be far worse than online players at the same limits, I know, but there is this to consider as well: From what I've seen, live play can get pretty goddamn wild at times, with preflop raises to like 8-10x the BB becoming the table standard that occurs in nearly every hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have been playing in deep stack 2-5 vegas games.. competition is tougher than the games your describing. 10x the BB is not anywhere close to standard and your not going to get your PF RR AI called with AQ.

Your def right though, live games can get INSANE if theres a couple super loose/bad players at the table