10/20, KK v River Checkraise

[FlyingStart]

Villain is TheMasterJ33 who has Tagish stats, maybe slightly on the looser side. We have no history before this session. This is a hand that got to showdown an orbit or two ago:

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 3 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $2,027.00
BB: $3,843.00
Hero (BTN): $2,127.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $70.00</font>, SB folds, BB calls $50.00

Flop: ($150) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $120.00</font>, BB calls $120.00

Turn: ($390) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $220.00</font>, BB calls $220.00

River: ($830) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Pot Size: $830.00 ($1 Rake)

BB had A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (Ace Jack high) and LOST (-$410.00)
Hero had K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (a pair of Nines) and WON (+$419.00)

which was pretty weird, but shows he prob doesnt give me a ton of cred. Also note the turn betsizing which may be relevant for the actual hand:


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $10/$20 Blinds - 3 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $2,272.00
BB: $3,112.00
Hero (BTN): $2,604.00

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $70.00</font>, SB folds, BB calls $50.00

Flop: ($150) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $120.00</font>, BB calls $120.00

Turn: ($390) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $215.00</font>, BB calls $215.00

River: ($820) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $615.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises all-in to $2,707.00</font> Hero scratches balls and?

[Pigeons]

I call this.
I dont think he c/c's 2 streets with sucker end straightdraw on paired board. I think most players fire it up on the flop with set, given it has many draws. Sets get more money in somewhere before the river.. mostly. 88 prob also raises this flop in a 3handed game. He might have a tricky A2 though.

[JemY]

Pot Odds: 2 to1, we need to win 30% of the time

Would he not c/r a FD with overcards on the flop? If he does have a FD,I wouldn't expect
him to c/r AI river with a busted FD more than 20% of the time. (already a generous number)
Now we need to win another 10% of the time against his range for the call to be breakeven.
There is obviously no hand he is check raising AI for value that you beat.
Do you really expect him to raise 89 AI for value? If he thought he was good he would just
snapcall this, of course. Raising would be stupid since your hand is either an overpair
that's not going to fold a lot, or air that he can now beat.
Same goes with the AJ type-hands that he played previously.
If he thinks ace high is good, he's calling (same explanation as before).
And I don't see how he could be raising 99 or TT here.
There are many hands in his range that have you crushed (67, 78, 54, A2, 88, T9dd) and
really few that you beat (missed flush draw with overcards, for the most part)

To me we don't win here much more than 20-25% of the time. So fold &gt; call

[freeucm]

Isn't this line more likely a bluff then if he bets out on river all in? Just curious.

[leatherass]

I'd fold here unless you knew villan had a propensity to river c/r bluff. I truthfully think he has specifically 88 here a lot as that is the hand that makes the most sense given his line. Althouhg a lower FD is very possible too given his line. Sick spot and I think versus some players it is an easy call and some an easy fold. Against a relatively unknow I think you have to give him credit here.

[king_of_drafts]

folds

[MezmerizePLZ]

sick, readsoul, prob fold

[whorasaurus]

[ QUOTE ]
Pot Odds: 2 to1, we need to win 30% of the time


There are many hands in his range that have you crushed (67, 78, 54, A2, 88, T9dd) and
really few that you beat (missed flush draw with overcards, for the most part)


[/ QUOTE ]

do you realize we beat these two pair hands?

[FlyingStart]

To the foldcamp, any particular hand you are putting villain on? Or are you saying 'fold' more because it would take some cohones to bluff here ?

[dlpnyc21]

fold, for the simple reason that the FD missed. villain knows that people are WAY more likely to look up river crs like this when diamonds blank, making him less likely to bluff, imo. I think you see houses/trips here more often than not, also, once you bet the turn in this hand villain can feel confident you will bet most rivers given board texture, making his CR make sense.