third barrel?

[counterspell]

villain is 37/11/2 34wtsd over 550 datamined hands

Full Tilt 5/10 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (5.25 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>...

[milesdyson]

put him on a drawing hand. you're basically hoping he peeled flop and picked up a straight draw on the turn. you beat or chop w/ flopped drawing hands (but maybe he'd bluff those if you check so whatever) like 97 and 87.

most likely the guy has K5 and is calling. i'd check. betting is not terrible i think, but i'd like a read that he gets aggressive on flop/turn with pairs before i tried.

[Oink]

87, 97 and KT is a lot of hands. I know that Hero beats 87 and 97 but its more than likely that villain will bet those and since I cant get myself to c/c 9 high betting is better than checking vs those hands.

I dunno. I rarely 3 barrel and I prolly check here altho I dont hate a bet.

Also 43 got there. If it didnt I wouldnt be surprised if c/c was +EV.

[Saikkonen]

First we can consider what villain will call you with on the flop. He can have overcards or hit a small pair or a straightdraw with something like 34 or 78. Even 109 or the like could be a possible hand. He could also have decided to call you down with A-high.

I wouldn't even secondbarrel this I guess because normally I prefer to have very predictable players to the left and if I don't I will leave.

So about the river: Villain will probably call with anything here if he has us beat and fold anything we beat. I think checkfold is correct here.

[milesdyson]

Board: Jh 6s 5c Qs 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 21.739% 21.74% 00.00% 45 0.00 { 3d2c }
Hand 1: 78.261% 78.26% 00.00% 162 0.00 { 77, 44-22, A6s-A5s, KTs, K6s-K5s, J7s, J4s, T6s-T5s, 97s-95s, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 43s, A6o-A5o, KTo, K6o-K5o, J7o, 97o, 86o+, 75o+, 65o, 43o }

this stove shows it +ev to bet. you'll fold him out 21% of the time (when he has KT 97 or 87).

if you remove any one of those hands, it's not +ev.

also if he checks behind 97 and 87 some % of the time, c/f can come out on top of bluffing.

[Oink]

Miles. The fact that you made Hero's hand 32 matters right? It makes more combos of 97 and 87...?

[milesdyson]

yup, that matters, lol. accounting for our cards then...

16 KT, 12 97, 12 87 for 40 combos instead of 48.

(40/48)*21.739% = 18.1%

also i ignored him having and folding the same hand, which matters.

seems really close. i want to discount 87 a little and include some stupid queen hands, as well as more hands that beat us on that river card (ace high bdfd hands).

edit: yeah this isn't exactly right either because im not account for his suited hands which make flushes (since we have the 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he cant have 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. i just wanted a general idea. didn't realize it got this lame, wow.

[counterspell]

i think we have to discount drawing hands at least slightly (because no one ever flatcalls with them) and emphasize weak pairs in the stove calc, but i have no idea by how much.

[Oink]

This is what I get, wtf? (I copy pasted your range)

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

191 games 0.047 secs 4,063 games/sec

Board: Jh 6s 5c Qs 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 12.042% 12.04% 00.00% 23 0.00 { 9d8s }
Hand 1: 87.958% 87.96% 00.00% 168 0.00 { 77, 44-22, A6s-A5s, KTs, K6s-K5s, J7s, J4s, T6s-T5s, 97s-95s, 85s+, 75s+, 64s+, 53s+, 43s, A6o-A5o, KTo, K6o-K5o, J7o, 97o, 86o+, 75o+, 65o }


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[milesdyson]

i must have some weird hands in there or something. haha. stove is so easy to fk up. (also 32 takes combos of 43 33 and 22 away).