50NL 3bet OOP PF w/ AQo Do I c-bet?

[CmnDwnWrkn]

[ QUOTE ]
everyone likes a cbet here huh?? Well i might get flamed for this but w/e, I really dont think a cbet here is all that great. Recently in my vid i had very similar situation like this. It folds to a 23/14 guy OTB he raises i have AQo in the SB i 3bet he calls flop comes 682r, i cbet he raises i fold...

a few good ppl said they like a check here. 29/15 is a little different but what is his callin range pf?? say 77+, AQ+ and maybe some other stuff probably not a really wide range. I really dont think 77+ (yes uNL players can't fold overs) is foldin, AQ obv not as likely and we maybe get AK to fold. If this guy is anywhere decent i think we are gettin called/raised too much on this flop to cbet. I use to think auto cbet after 3bettin pf but that is spew can take out a huge chunk out of your winrate. Buutttt this guy is a little looser so he could be callin w/ an even wider range which you could make an arguement to cbet and it probably makes this not as bad a spot to cbet...

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with this. I think you'll see a call or raise of your c-bet significantly more often than you'll see a fold. A c-bet after a 3-bet is MUCH different than a c-bet after a normal raise.

1. For villian to call a 3-bet pf, he likely has a strong hand; probably a strong pp.

2. Villain is more pot committed in calling a 3-bet than he would be just calling a normal raise. He has more money invested, making is less likely that he will lay down a decent hand.

3. At the microlimits, there is an aversion to laying down pocket pairs and hands like AK. Even though maybe they "should", players oftentimes won't fold these hands.

A lot of your value in 3-betting comes from pre-flop fold equity. Seeing as the flop completely missed you, I would strongly consider not investing any more money in the pot. There is no reason to build a big pot when you don't even have a hand, unless you have a strong read that the villain is likely to fold. Most of the time, he isn't folding.

[Lego05]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm firing $9.50-$10.50 and villain folds [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]]

If called, we shut it down unless we catch an A and if raised, we muck.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Agree....except $8 - $8.75 sounds good enough to me.

[CmnDwnWrkn]

Think about it like this -

Assuming you are c-betting 3/4 of the pot, the c-bet has to work (i.e. make the opponent fold) 3 out of 7 times to break even.

Ex: $10 pot, c-bet $7.50

Lose 4 times: lose 4 x 7.50 = $30
Win 3 times: win 3 x 10 = $30


That means for this to be profitable, a c-bet has to make the opponent fold at least half of the time. If you think he is folding 50% or more of the time, then by all means go ahead and c-bet. I don't think he is, though.

[BevillTheDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason, though, is because uNL players CAN lay down med. overpairs here.

[/ QUOTE ]

*cough* b/c ftp is full of nits/tags *cough*

...lol jk with you [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[fees]

you dont need to cbet every time, it depends on ur opponent

[Lego05]

CmnDwnWrkn - Just an aside...you can make your c-bets in 3 bet pots smaller than in regular raised pots. I generally make mine about 2/3 pot and sometimes slightly smaller and sometimes slightly bigger.

[dimeetrees]

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($106.40)
MP ($42.70)
CO ($14)
Button ($50.15)
Hero ($50)
BB ($72.70)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $1.75</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $4.25.

Flop: ($12.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $8</font>, Button calls $8.

Turn: ($28.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $15</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $28.75

Thanks for the thorough thoughts and analysis everyone, very insightful for this spot.

After that call its obvious where we are at.