#1
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Overcard + FD vs. AI on Flop (math confirmation)
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)
Hero (SB): $44.85 BB: $7.55 Villain (UTG): $14.05 CO: $10.20 BTN: $28.70 Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players) Villain calls $0.25, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, BB calls $1.00, Villain calls $1.00 Flop: ($3.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $2.00</font>, BB folds, <font color="red">Villain raises all-in to $12.80</font>, Hero??? I called following this logic: It costs me ~$11 to call into a pot of ~$28 which means I only need to win something like 40% of the time, which I assumed I had by counting the 3 aces as outs (12 outs then, which means I win something like 45% of the time). Is this correct? Or is my math too approximated and too reliant on the aces as outs. (I figure at the very worst, I'm like 33% to win if he has a set, and there's still a good shot that my 9 is an overcard). The guy started flaming me, but I thought it was the right call. Was I correct? |
#2
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Re: Overcard + FD vs. AI on Flop (math confirmation)
pokerstove ftw [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#3
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Re: Overcard + FD vs. AI on Flop (math confirmation)
Yeah, this call is fine.
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#4
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Re: Overcard + FD vs. AI on Flop (math confirmation)
I think your math is slightly wrong- you are calling 10.80 to win 18.55 or 1.7:1, you need 1/(1+1.7) or ~37%. You have 8 cleanish outs and 4 dirty ones, call it 10; 10*4 is 40%, calling is OK. Versus some players it isn't good, against others it is easy.
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#5
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Re: Overcard + FD vs. AI on Flop (math confirmation)
Pokerstove confirms roughly 40% equity here. As Antinome said above, a call here is g00t.
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#6
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Re: Overcard + FD vs. AI on Flop (math confirmation)
bet more on teh flop...
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#7
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Re: Overcard + FD vs. AI on Flop (math confirmation)
I need help on this one.
If hero is ok to call since he has 40% equity in the hand, doesn't that mean villian has 60% equity. Why are we going into this with a 60% chance of losing? Thanks for helping me see the light. |
#8
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Re: Overcard + FD vs. AI on Flop (math confirmation)
There's this thing called dead money, I suggest you read up about it.
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#9
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Re: Overcard + FD vs. AI on Flop (math confirmation)
[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]
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#10
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Re: Overcard + FD vs. AI on Flop (math confirmation)
[ QUOTE ]
I need help on this one. If hero is ok to call since he has 40% equity in the hand, doesn't that mean villian has 60% equity. Why are we going into this with a 60% chance of losing? Thanks for helping me see the light. [/ QUOTE ] 18.55 in pot and we only need to call 10.8 so we don't need to win more often than we lose: If we win 40 times and lose 60 times then: 40 X 18.55 = 742 60 X 10.80 = 648 and 742 > 648 so we end up making money. 742 - 648 = 94 $94 to be exact, which divided by 100 (number of samples I used:60+40) = .94 meaning that Each time this happens we expect to make 94 cents. |
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