$10 Deepstack First Round Bluff

[Supesimmo]

First Round as I said. Table is typically pretty poor, but villain seems a pretty good player. Plan is to make him fold everything except a jack; spewage or effective?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) handconverter.com

MP3 (t5320)
CO (t4960)
Button (t5450)
Hero (t4980)
BB (t5520)
UTG (t4810)
UTG+1 (t4765)
MP1 (t5135)
MP2 (t4300)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t70</font>, BB calls t50.

Flop: (t140) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t100</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to t300</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t800</font>, BB calls t500.

Turn: (t1740) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets t1800</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t4110</font>

[MelchyBeau]

i think this is def spewage. I see no reason to take theses risks so early

[Supesimmo]

Would you advise simply folding to flop raise?

[ForRealDD]

This appears to be a monster spew from someone who just wont fold AK postflop. Sticking in over 200 bbs with A hi here can't be anything but a spew imo. Make your c-bet on the flop and check out with 4.8k behind.

[Supesimmo]

You seem to be avoiding the question; can villain call here with anything other than a Jack, and how likely do we think he is to have one following his betting pattern.
IMO, the value of my cards is irrelvant here, its a pure bluff. If you don't think its effective, could you please suggest why so I can fix the leak?
Thanks

[ForRealDD]

[ QUOTE ]
You seem to be avoiding the question; can villain call here with anything other than a Jack, and how likely do we think he is to have one following his betting pattern.
IMO, the value of my cards is irrelvant here, its a pure bluff. If you don't think its effective, could you please suggest why so I can fix the leak?
Thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he can definitely call with a hand that doesn't contain a J. You've played your hand so strongly representing a big pair AA/KK/QQ.He's put in over half of his stack at this point. IMO he's calling with any over pair, 2pr, 1pr + draw, and possibly other 1 pair hands. He's getting too good of price.

My apologies for missing the point the first time.

[Dunkman]

Your hand looks like KK or AA that you just can't fold. I'm not sure you'll fold out 2 pair or a set here if villain really is observant. Just calling his flop raise would look more like JJ or QQ. What you tried to so isn't so bad, I just don't think your line does it particularly well. Also, if you just call the flop bet and c/r the turn, you give yourself a way out, and do a better job of representing the hand you're trying to represent. You're representing different hands on the flop and turn, and villain may figure that out.

[Supesimmo]

Thanks guys [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[markysals11]

really hate it, such an easy tourny, pitch it and sit back and wait for them to dump them to you

[Supesimmo]

Can i make this question more broad then:
Instead of these daring bluffs early on in tournaments which are highly geared towards good consistent play, is it best to just sit back and play really really nitty? Are bluffs basically always -EV in these tournaments?