Venetian $540 DS - 2 early 2 shove?

[Beachman42]

I recently returned from a WSOP + VDS trip where my fun was >>> than my luck. I was amazed to find that in both the $500 Deep Stack at the V and the $1,500 WSOP event (#35) the play was pretty bad & much worse than what I had anticipated.

Anyway, to the hand in question -

Set-up:

2nd level of the VDS (50/100 no ante). 10K to start & Hero has ~13.5K due to a few small ball victories and blatant aggression when no one else showed any interest in the pot post flop. THe only hand shown down was 54 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] vs. a FPS TT where I rivered 2 pr on a 3 7 5, 2, 4 board. I limped on the button after 4-5 limpers, villian had TT in the BB and checked. I bet the pot when checked to & villian flat called (?!?). He check/called the turn when I bet ~50% of the pot, and I checked behind on the turn since I was almost certain he had the A. Go figure, but that's how bad the play was.

The Hand:

Hero has 13.5K and 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the button. 4 limpers @ 100 so I limp as well looking for a set. SB limps but BB raises to 600. All fold to me where its 500 into a pot of 1200. I call.

Read:

Villian is a tight local rock - very typical of the stereotype you find in any 2-4 or 3-6 cash limit table. He looks the part and for ~1.25 hours, has played the part. He has AA-JJ or AK here >80% of the time. He also has just over 10K in chips. Given that situation, I'm pretty sure my call was justified. Plus, I really don't like limping and then folding. Its a nasty habit.

Flop: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Villian bets $1K straight. Hero ???

As I don't get to play very many deep stack MTTs, I'd appreciate your reasoning as much as your action here. I'll post a follow-up this evening.

Beachman

[woodguy]

I think if you are on with you read then call.

If you truly have little FE and not quite the equity, I don't mind a call then c/f if unimproved on turn.

Sounds weak but he's not folding, but happily that includes when you make your hand.

If he's the type you decribed + capable of putting you on a set and folding here then raise, but the stack are a little to deep to pull that off nicely as a c/r jam.

[renodoc]

I think I float this flop bet, but I might fold since you lose if you hit a set.

He isn't going to fold any of his range here, so you are playing for the str8 draw. If an Ace comes off i think you stack him.

[Proofrock]

Preflop is fine / standard.

Perhaps it's weak, but I actually fold this flop. I would call with 66, though.

Jamming I think is bad because (1) you have no FE except against AK (which he won't even bet a lot of the time), and (2) AA is a very strong possibility for this Villain (I'd weight it heavier than JJ or QQ given your description of Villain), against which you only have 6 outs.


The reasons I don't like going further with 22 here is that none of your outs are really that clean.

If you turn the ace, then you won't stack Villain when he holds JJ-KK, but he'll have 12 outs to river the boat for a split when he has AA.

If you turn your set and he bets (can't really fold, but can't really be ahead often enough).

Given his range, though, you should be good almost always when you turn the 6 high straight.

Anyway, these difficulties wouldn't be as much of a problem if you were getting better implied odds (say 20k stacks), but getting less than 10 to 1 implied odds makes it pretty marginal to continue, IMO.

Note: you have no problems if you had 66 instead, since you almost certainly have ten outs to improve, and you can stack JJ+ on every single one of those outs.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
but I might fold since you lose if you hit a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think putting him on AA only is little narrow, and he doesn't have 66.

I count another 2 as an out for sure.

[woodguy]

[ QUOTE ]
you won't stack Villain when he holds JJ-KK

[/ QUOTE ]

True for a large part of the time, but you can get a significant bet.

[potamophobia]

I think you have enough behind to flat call this flop bet. There is still a chance you have the best hand if villain has AK here. Even if he does have AA, he might freeze up if another heart comes off on the turn. With the line you took, I would put you almost squarely on a pocket pair. The raiser probably thinks the same, and could be a little worried you flopped a set. If a terrible card like Kc comes off on the turn, then just fold if he bets. If a card like the 7h comes off however, I think you have a decent chance of winning the pot.

[DeMaci]

Fold PF, as played, call flop.

[Dave D]

I like the call pf for exactly the reasons you say. You know what he has, basically.

I peel this flop. It's deep stacked, and it's not that much of your stack, and you're getting like 2.2:1. It's kinda close, but I like it b/c you're still fine stack wise if you c/f an unimproved turn. There's also some chance that villian will check through on the turn.

I think even if we do hit our hand (either a set or the wheel is good here) we've got a pretty serious reverse implied odds situation. So you just cant bet too much later, I doubt you're stacking him. That's kinda an argument against calling the flop, but I think the express odds make it almost a legit call by itself, and I think we can expect to extract enough later (I think I would go for a c/r on the turn) to make the flop call good.

[Beachman42]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold PF, as played, call flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm sorry, but I cannot see how this is a fold pf. I have more than 130X the limp & there is no way I'm getting into too much trouble pf.

also, I had just come from a WSOP event where I really learned the value of calculated gambles early. That is, I played too TAG and made it exactly 4 levels before I was toast.

If you really think a pf fold is in order, then please explain. Also, are you saying that my first pf action should be fold or the second?