top two vs unpredictable player

[IsaacAsimov]

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 3 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

<u>Hero (SB): $94</u>
<font color="black"> BB: $86 </font>
<u>BTN: $84.25</u>

<font color="black"> Preflop: </font> Hero is dealt 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
BTN calls $1, Hero calls $0.50, BB checks

<font color="black"> Flop: </font> ($3) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red"> Hero bets $3 </font>, BB folds, BTN calls $3

<font color="black"> Turn: </font> ($9) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red"> Hero bets $9 </font>, BTN calls $9

<font color="black"> River: </font> ($27) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red"> BTN bets $14 </font>

Villain is 45.70/0.00/1.57 over 302 hands with a river aggression of 7.5. Villains call was of moderate speed and villain is capable of bluffing.
He is somewhat unpredictable, because he never raises preflop, I suppose I can give him credit for calling a gutshot on the flop and turn.
Would you call in this spot given the pot odds and villains image?

[good_gamble]

I prolly call this getting 3-1 but its v. close IMO

[joeblack]

I think your beat. Fold.

[Captain Awesome]

The odds are too good for me to fold. You'll see a T or weaker 2p often enough imo.

[mdkrahn]

I think you can definitely call here getting almost 3:1

his River AF of 7.5 also supports this.

[IsaacAsimov]

Usually I don't just call river bets, just because I think my odds are good, but I think in this spot his high river af requires me too call, cause I induce too many bluffs by checking (even non rational ones, like if he had tp) to be folding every time the river brings a scare card.

[Peter Harris]

call, it looks like a value bet but that could either be by a weaker hand, by a bluff, or could be a straight.

[niffe9]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you can definitely call here getting almost 3:1

his River AF of 7.5 also supports this.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even over 300 hands a river AF stat is likely to be inaccurate as you could easily have only seen the river about 10 times in this many hands. I think the decision here is VERY close, maybe leaning towards a call.

[IsaacAsimov]

@ niffe9

This is true, though I remember reading in Pokey's guide to PAHUD, that you can use AF as an estimate after roughly 10k/VPIP hands, so in this case after roughly 200 hands. His total AF is 1.5 and his flop, turn, river aggro was something like 0.6/1.1/7.5, so he clearly had a tendency to bet or raise the river a lot. I know this still isn't very accurate, but it does make calling more consideral imo as you said leaning towards a call.

[phantom_lord]

call