Take the gamble?

ellizizcute · #1 02-22-2006, 02:44 AM

225/301 left in a Pokerstars 10+1 tourney. Average Stack is around 7000..

http://www.pokerhand.org/?250897

ZBTHorton · #2 02-22-2006, 02:50 AM

yep..I call that.

iloseulose · #3 02-22-2006, 03:01 AM

wow..j8,i was thinking at worst:T8, but most likely 2p...anyway..uv got 9 outs for the nut flush + 3 for ur inside str8 draw (but the str8 could result in a split). i wouldnt consider the A or J being outs since it was such a large overbet. pot is somethin like 6k and u have to call 4200 to win 6k, 1.5-1. as badly as u want to see the turn..u gotta let it go. u still have plenty of time to accumulate chips with 100-200 blinds.

.....and u also have to put in effect that if he does have a set or 2p, that u need to avoid the board pairing

$hort$tacked · #4 02-22-2006, 03:07 AM

I don't think this is a call at all. It looks tempting to draw to the nut flush, but his giant overbet is not the right decision. I put his range at two pair, a set, or a pair with a draw. You need 1.9:1 odds to draw to your flush. We'll even add in a bit for you A ,J, or backdoor straight possibilites and is still doesn't come close to sufficient odds. If you win this hand you will have an average stack, but you will be nowhere near the top of the pack and if you lose, you bust. I think there are much better opportunities to pick up chips. I wait for a better spot, but observe to see how often this player overbets the flop.

ellizizcute · #5 02-22-2006, 03:20 AM

Do you think I should of raised preflop due to the limpers to eliminate garbage hands? Or due to the fact that it is simply just an AJ with position limp?

iloseulose · #6 02-22-2006, 03:30 AM

i definately would have raised preflop. uve got a pretty good hand (most likely the best) with position

FBP · #7 02-22-2006, 03:36 AM

As it's suited limping doesn't look very bad too me, but raising is the standard i guess.

On the flop, well ZBT says it's a call and i'm quite surprised but of course you can't be too far behind with your hand. It really seems gambling without an edge to me but i'm so clueless.

P.S: I was balmix at your table in the 3+R, things didn't work out for either of us, i posted 2 hands of it in the main rebuy thread.