Always Bet on the Favorite on the Finals?

[RiveredAgain]

On these shows where America votes for the winners, I think there might be something to always betting on the winners come finale time.

Look at what has happenned in the past. Kelly Clarkson was the favorite and she won. Clay/Reuben was too close to call but I believe Reuben was a slight favorite if I'm not mistaken. Fantasia , Carrie, and Taylor were all favorites going in to the finals.

If anyone saw the show Grease on NBC that ended recently, Laura and Max were both favorites, and both won.

[thing85]

I'm not sure about your experience with betting, but you are right in that the favorite usually wins. That's why they are the favorite. However, you are ignoring an important factor: what kind of odds are you getting? If you estimate someone to be a 60% favorite but you're getting odds of -500, this obviously is not a good bet.

Sometimes it's correct to bet the underdog.

[RiveredAgain]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure about your experience with betting, but you are right in that the favorite usually wins. That's why they are the favorite. However, you are ignoring an important factor: what kind of odds are you getting? If you estimate someone to be a 60% favorite but you're getting odds of -500, this obviously is not a good bet.

Sometimes it's correct to bet the underdog.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm saying that even with the odds given, betting on the favorite might almost always be the better bet. Of course if the odds are something ridiculous like -1000 (which I doubt would ever happen), then the bet probably wouldn't be a good bet. But usually the favorite is something along the lines of -150 to -300.

The point I was trying to make is that with the shows where America votes for the winner, there are just so many people voting for these things that variance is very minimal. If there are, say, only 100 people voting for the winner, a few people changing their minds could throw the whole thing upside down. But with millions of votes being cast, the favorite will almost always win, beating the odds given by the odds-makers.

This is just a theory of mine.

[thing85]

I don't know how much weight that theory really holds. Upsets can happen in any event, and the odds do matter. It also depends on who the top 2 are and the specific performances on the final night. I guess your theory holds true for large favorites, which could be the case with Melinda this season. I have to believe the odds will ultimately reflect that though.

[4Tay]

I remembered on the last Dancing With The Stars, Mario Lopez was the favorite, but Emmitt Smith won.

[Double Down]

How do you know who the favorite is? What is that based on? Word of mouth? If anything, I thought that both winners in the Grease Finale were considered the two underdogs. Favorite according to whom?

[RiveredAgain]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you know who the favorite is? What is that based on? Word of mouth? If anything, I thought that both winners in the Grease Finale were considered the two underdogs. Favorite according to whom?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's usually pretty clear who the favorite is going in to the finals. This is also reflected by the odds-makers.

Also, the two who won in Grease were both favorites. According to Bet365.com Max was -150 and Laura was -200. If I had any money in that site I would've put all my money on Laura she was such a lock to win.

[4Tay]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you know who the favorite is? What is that based on? Word of mouth? If anything, I thought that both winners in the Grease Finale were considered the two underdogs. Favorite according to whom?

[/ QUOTE ]

According to their price on the books.