Blind steal situation

MitchL · #1 02-27-2007, 12:35 AM

I caught a bit of flack from a decent player for the way I played this hand and since it has become a standard line of mine in these situations I thought I would post it here to make sure its not leaky.

BB here is running bad and is loose generally. He does some weird stuff against bad players but plays pretty honestly against me. He defends very liberally especially when he is running bad.

15/30 Cbury

I open otb w/ A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] bb calls.

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks, I bet he calls.

Turn: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB checks, I check.

River: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB bets I call.

Any value in a river raise given villains description? I think I have been playing poorly as of late though I havent been running bad. Any help would be appreciated.

SuperPokerJedi · #2 02-27-2007, 12:50 AM

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Any value in a river raise

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Always! nh [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Justin A · #3 02-27-2007, 12:51 AM

Seems fine.

If the board hadn't paired on the turn I'd pretty much always bet though.

private joker · #4 02-27-2007, 02:14 AM

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Seems fine.

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Justin, why wouldn't you raise the river?

I can't think of a good reason not to raise. Sure we may be chopping a lot, but he could be "honestly" value betting a pair here, so our boat is the best one in all those cases. Putting him on quads is laughable, so I think this is a super easy raise. Then chop it or take the whole pot when he folds or pays you off with a worse boat.

PokerBob · #5 02-27-2007, 04:03 AM

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Seems fine.

If the board hadn't paired on the turn I'd pretty much always bet though.

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what justin said.

vmacosta · #6 02-27-2007, 04:51 AM

I think you should bet the turn. There are just too few ways for you to be beat here and too many ways for him to have 8+ outs here.

And with the A out there, plus your read that he's straightforward against you, I really don't see him bluff raising enough to scare you. Even if you're a SD-monkey like me and decide you have to call down, he prob won't be raising you often enough to make this line unprofitable.

After you checked the turn, the river call is pretty standard and I need a read that the guy is on tilt before I'm raising.

Edit: just reread the hand and now I'm less sure about the turn bet but still think its prob right.

MitchL · #7 02-27-2007, 11:07 AM

A few reasons why I checked the turn:

1. obv to avoid a possible cr.
2. If he is peeling turn w/ a 7 or pp, he will most likely fold the turn against me, but would call a river bet if I check turn.
3. Not too much danger in giving a free card.
4. If he has an Ace I need to improve.

mongidig · #8 02-27-2007, 11:34 AM

Based on your read of your opponent I like the check on the turn for all the reasons you stated.

Based on your read that your opponent is running bad and you showed weaknes on the turn I would raise the river always. Even without these reads I am probably raising the river against most players. If he has AA or a 9, oh well.

PokerBob · #9 02-27-2007, 11:47 AM

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I think you should bet the turn. There are just too few ways for you to be beat here and too many ways for him to have 8+ outs here.

And with the A out there, plus your read that he's straightforward against you, I really don't see him bluff raising enough to scare you. Even if you're a SD-monkey like me and decide you have to call down, he prob won't be raising you often enough to make this line unprofitable.

After you checked the turn, the river call is pretty standard and I need a read that the guy is on tilt before I'm raising.

Edit: just reread the hand and now I'm less sure about the turn bet but still think its prob right.

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I completely disagree here. The flop is A97r. What can he call with? an ace. a 9. a 7. T8. Maybe JT or some other gutshot hands. If he has something like 87, the turn just crippled him. If not, the turn card counterfeits our kicker and quite possibly hit his hand. If it didn't, then we are giving him a free card in a super tiny pot to a guy who probably doesn't have anything. If that free card ends up costing us the pot, it is not a large mistake. 8 outs on the turn is likely too generous of an estimate. If he makes running clubs, good for him.

Justin A · #10 02-27-2007, 12:08 PM

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Seems fine.

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Justin, why wouldn't you raise the river?

I can't think of a good reason not to raise. Sure we may be chopping a lot, but he could be "honestly" value betting a pair here, so our boat is the best one in all those cases. Putting him on quads is laughable, so I think this is a super easy raise. Then chop it or take the whole pot when he folds or pays you off with a worse boat.

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We can put him on a chopping hand, quads, a 7, a bluff, or maybe a pocket pair. The quads 3bets us and we have to call. There's no point in raising the chopping hands, the bluffs don't call, and I have to imagine the 7's and pocket pairs rarely call also. Not to mention the 7's and pocket pairs probably aren't betting the river anyways.