40/80 river

[PokerBob]

commerce 40
i have been in the game for maybe 40 minutes, and have done nothing of note. the button in this hand is young and looks familiar to me. i think i recognize him from bellagio, but i'm not sure. in any event, for some reason i get the impression he is not horrible.

folds to button who opens. i call in the bb with K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. flop QJ3 with 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]s

i check/call.

turn: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

i check. button checks.

river: 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

i do what?

[jba]

bet. i think he'll be pretty hesitant to bluff at this board and it's super hard for him to raise with a worse hand.

[Brad1970]

I'd bet too. He doesn't seem to want it. If he plays back at you, then get outta dodge.

[Jorge V]

I do not understand why you would want to bet here, are you bluffing? What hand are you trying to get to fold? I would check and based on your read, proceed accordingly. I don't see you gaining anything from betting.

[jba]

[ QUOTE ]
I do not understand why you would want to bet here, are you bluffing? What hand are you trying to get to fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

no it's a value bet

[Victor]

online this is such a super easy value bet. live, i think it is too but you gotta sell it. i suck at live poker unless its local cleveland games with 46 idiots to the flop. but there has to be a reverse tell, something subtle, that will induce a call.

[benwood]

The bet gains (1)when he has an A or K high & will call your bet,but he would have checked behind,or(2)if he will fold with a better hand.

The bet fails when he calls with a better hand but would heve checked behind.

The bet breaks even if he folds a worse hand but would have checked behind.

What is more likely from this particular opponent?Maybe you would have to be there.

[ILOVEPOKER929]

I would bet the river. The neat thing about this river bet is it is unclear whether your value betting or bluffing. In some ways this is a classic value/bluff situation. Sometimes you will get called by an AK/AT type of hand and sometimes you'll induce 44-88s to make a bad fold. Good things can happen if you bet this river. I dont really see any good things happening if you check this river.

[benwood]

I think that you're right that a bet is best.Another smaller advantage is that if he doesn't call,he won't get to see your hand.I find that this has benefit as you continue to play with him.

[freewheeler]

[ QUOTE ]
The bet fails when he calls with a better hand but would heve checked behind.


[/ QUOTE ]The bet fails every time hero loses the pot, assuming he would fold to a bet. If we would call a bet here, then I agree it is much better to make the bet. A high will usually call down, and is precisely what we are hoping for. But if we plan to fold if button bets, then it's a closer decision because we would stand to lose a bet we would have otherwise avoided by c/f. Still, I think A high calls down often enough to make this a pretty clear value bet. (More so online than live maybe though). Plus it avoids having to even contemplate what to do if villain bets. Cards join the muck the instant his chips hit the felt if he raises.