Bellagio 25-50, turn straight, river pairs board

ceczar · #1 01-19-2007, 05:14 PM

this hand happened last friday at the bellagio 25-50. i had been playing for maybe an hour or so, and been involved in slightly more than my share of pots, being reasonably active but not lagtarded. villain was a cleancut late 30s european, and seemed to be a thinking player. he had just played a hand where he thought for a long time and almost called a large river bluff (~5k IIRC) with AQ no pair.

i'm sitting on <9k, villain covers.
dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in MP
i raise to 225, villain calls on button (he called a lot, including limping in and out of position)

[note: i actually don't remember the suits, and while there may have been a flush draw on the flop, i'm going to assume there wasn't, but i'm pretty sure there was one on the turn. if your answer changes if it was rainbow on the turn, i'd be interested]

pot (525) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
i check, villain bets 300, i call.

turn (1125) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]]
i check, villain bets 500, i raise to 2000, he thinks for not too long and calls

river (5125) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]

and hero's plan is ???(i have a little less than 6k left)

i should note that we had played a hand a couple orbits before where he claimed to have bluffed me off of a medium pot with a double barrel, and i felt he was definitely capable of bluffing in this spot (even with some hands that might have showdown value).

8outpoker · #2 01-19-2007, 05:25 PM

I think you have the best hand here with no flush possible,Im betting for value.

TheGrifter · #3 01-19-2007, 05:42 PM

It seems likely that he has 2-pair or a set on the turn, the question is whether or not it turned into a FH on the river or not.

Unfortunately your hand is relatively face-up in this situation. However it's unlikely he'll try to move you off a str8 w/a bluff if you bet. So I would bet $2500 to get value out of lesser hands w/showdown value and fold to a raise.

SlowHabit · #4 01-19-2007, 05:42 PM

If you do bet, how much are you planning to bet? 2k? Do you really check-raise with two pairs (or set) on that turn? If he knows that you don't, you're going to make the river a hard spot if he shoves.

Judge from your description, I would check-call.

Jason Strasser (strassa2) · #5 01-19-2007, 05:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It seems likely that he has 2-pair or a set on the turn, the question is whether or not it turned into a FH on the river or not.

Unfortunately your hand is relatively face-up in this situation. However it's unlikely he'll try to move you off a str8 w/a bluff if you bet. So I would bet $2500 to get value out of lesser hands w/showdown value and fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

checking and guessing between call/fold seems much better to me than to value bet this river.

Apathy · #6 01-19-2007, 05:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
It seems likely that he has 2-pair or a set on the turn, the question is whether or not it turned into a FH on the river or not.

Unfortunately your hand is relatively face-up in this situation. However it's unlikely he'll try to move you off a str8 w/a bluff if you bet. So I would bet $2500 to get value out of lesser hands w/showdown value and fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
ugh I dont like the plan of making a weak bet and then folding to a guy capable of bluffing getting sick odds.

I think you should check since there cant be much value in betting especially with the weird stack sizes. Id call or fold depending on how much and how he bet etc etc.

Post-Oak · #7 01-19-2007, 06:05 PM

If you are going to CR the turn, I like a bigger raise. In fact, I think you should overbet the pot and make it $3.5K (a 3K raise into a 2125 pot).

As played, I like a check-call on the river. Give him a chance to bluff. If he has a boat, he is going to get your money if you bet anyway.

IMO, betting 2.5K here and folding to a push is bad. At that point, you are committed.

TheGrifter · #8 01-19-2007, 06:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It seems likely that he has 2-pair or a set on the turn, the question is whether or not it turned into a FH on the river or not.

Unfortunately your hand is relatively face-up in this situation. However it's unlikely he'll try to move you off a str8 w/a bluff if you bet. So I would bet $2500 to get value out of lesser hands w/showdown value and fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

checking and guessing between call/fold seems much better to me than to value bet this river.

[/ QUOTE ]

It just seems to me that if you check you say "I have JJ please bluff me out" and he will always push. Whereas betting for value will get you paid by some worse hands and make it less likely you'll fold the best hand.

TheWorstPlayer · #9 01-19-2007, 06:10 PM

dude, look at what you're saying. if you bet/fold, maybe you get paid by some worse hands (unlikely, IMO) and maybe you fold the best hand (more likely, IMO). if you c/c, AS YOU SAY, he will bet a lot of hands. many of which you're ahead of. so call. the value you get from inducing this bluff, waaaay outweighs any value you get by betting.

TheGrifter · #10 01-19-2007, 06:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]
dude, look at what you're saying. if you bet/fold, maybe you get paid by some worse hands (unlikely, IMO) and maybe you fold the best hand (more likely, IMO). if you c/c, AS YOU SAY, he will bet a lot of hands. many of which you're ahead of. so call. the value you get from inducing this bluff, waaaay outweighs any value you get by betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah. True, you're right.