SUPERBOWL GOES INTO OVERTIME.

[cardcounter0]

Has anyone seen a prop bet for the Superbowl ending in a tie, or having to go into OT?

If there is anyone booking this bet, please let me know.
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[craig]

If they aren't out yet, they will be out there. There are usually arb opportunities on it as well.

craig

[Shooternewt]

I will give you great odds that the superbowl does not end in a tie.

[youtalkfunny]

It's a playoff game, so it won't end in a tie.

OT is usually No -1000, takeback +600, but I think last year, -1200 was more common.

[Angelus]

SportsInteraction:
Yes +850
No -3300

Sports.com:
Yes +600
No -950

Bowmans:
Yes +700
No -1100

[DeucesUp]

[ QUOTE ]
SportsInteraction:
Yes +850
No -3300

Sports.com:
Yes +600
No -950

Bowmans:
Yes +700
No -1100

[/ QUOTE ]

Olympic
Yes +700
No -1100

Bodog
Yes +600
No -1000

Lots of choices, but no arb opportunities that I've seen. Doesn't mean that none of these are good bets [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[craig]

I think last year, or maybe NE/CAR, the line got so high that taking the OT bet was actually profitable. Escpecially if you bet the NO early on.

craig

[playersare]

none of the first 40 super bowls went into overtime. only 10 games have even been decided by 7 points or less. if this year happens to be the first, then it would make the odds 40-1, or -4000. so betting the "yes" has virtually no value with that much juice. the "no" is definitely playable at -1000, though no one's gonna get rich laying stuff like that in the long run.

[craig]

[ QUOTE ]
none of the first 40 super bowls went into overtime. only 10 games have even been decided by 7 points or less. if this year happens to be the first, then it would make the odds 40-1, or -4000. so betting the "yes" has virtually no value with that much juice. the "no" is definitely playable at -1000, though no one's gonna get rich laying stuff like that in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

How oftend do regular seaon games go into overtime? Is there a reason SB haven't went or is it just an abberation.

craig

[playersare]

[ QUOTE ]
How oftend do regular seaon games go into overtime? Is there a reason SB haven't went or is it just an abberation.

[/ QUOTE ]
I haven't tracked down a definitive breakdown of OT games yet, but I did find the two seasons with the higher number of regular season overtimes overall.

2002 - 32 teams
25 out of 256 games went to overtime (9.77%)

1995 - 30 teams
21 out of 240 games went to overtime (8.75%)

so anything below these two seasons would be LESS than 8.75% chance of overtime. so factoring in all seasons since 1974 when overtime was instituted, the chance of an NFL overtime game in GENERAL could possibly be around 6-7%. at the maximum 9.77%, laying -1000 on "no OT" should be +EV in the long run, since 10% OT is the breakeven point. the true value of "no OT in general" without taking into account of the "no OT in SB history" bias, is probably around -1400 (based on estimated 7% frequency). then factoring in the actual superbowl setting of two teams who rarely play each other, meeting on a neutral field, you could conceivably interpolate it as high as -2000.

so in my opinion, -1000 on the "no OT" could not only be a good bet on the super bowl, but possibly every SINGLE NFL game (if books do actually offer it regularly during the season). just a matter if whether you can get a better return overall on something else or not.