Questionable Move from a $6 Rebuy on PP?

[VespaRally]

It's down to the final four tables out of 460. In general, the table is playing tight (some walks, some stalling, etc.), but I have no specific read on the SB. I felt he was weak (having open-limped) and obviously I'm hoping he'll muck.
Without a real read is this just retarded?



Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t4000/t8000
(Ante: t200)
9 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: t41552
UTG+1: t155968
MP1: t304911
MP2: t103543
MP3: t143296
CO: t4359
Button: t107826
SB: t68804
Hero: t92343

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
7 folds, SB calls t4000 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t13800)</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises all-in t84143

[EnderIII]

Assuming he calls with AQ+ and 77+ which could be argued, but seems like a reasonable starting point, means he calls with 6% of hands. If there have been some walks at the table he probably isn't completing with everything, but i don't have a good sense of what percent he would complete with....maybe 60%. If thats the case then 90% of the time he folds and 10% he calls.

13800* .9 = 12420

151,400 * .3 *.1 = 4540 (you are 30% against my assumed calling range)

subtracting 151,400 * .7 *.1 = -10600

for a total EV 6360.

So overall a big risk for 1.5 big blinds. And my assumptions may be off. At first glance i was inclined to agree it looked horrible, but after doing the math i think it is just a less than ideal way to play. Any input from anyone about my assumptions here?

[Dunkman]

I like it...pot is like 1/5 of your stack, take it.

[VespaRally]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming he calls with AQ+ and 77+ which could be argued, but seems like a reasonable starting point, means he calls with 6% of hands. If there have been some walks at the table he probably isn't completing with everything, but i don't have a good sense of what percent he would complete with....maybe 60%. If thats the case then 90% of the time he folds and 10% he calls.

13800* .9 = 12420

151,400 * .3 *.1 = 4540 (you are 30% against my assumed calling range)

subtracting 151,400 * .7 *.1 = -10600

for a total EV 6360.

So overall a big risk for 1.5 big blinds. And my assumptions may be off. At first glance i was inclined to agree it looked horrible, but after doing the math i think it is just a less than ideal way to play. Any input from anyone about my assumptions here?

[/ QUOTE ]

As it turns out, your estimates were a little conservative. In the actual hand, he thought about it for a very long time and finally called with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a hand I was surprised to see). I was dominated. So, now that we know he had a lot of trouble putting his whole stack in with A9s we can assume that A9s was approaching the limit of his range. We now have new calling assumptions: A8s+,55+,ATo+. A decent range for the pair and Ace-loving masses.
I’m about a 33/67 underdog if he calls. Let’s say he limps with 60% of all hands – that’s a conservative estimate because these people limp in these spots way more than half the time. Okay, so of the 60% of the time he limps, he will call only:

A8s 4
A9s 3
ATs 4
AJs 4
AQs 4
AKs 3
55 6
66 6
77 6
88 6
99 3
TT 6
JJ 6
QQ 6
KK 3
AA 6
ATo - 16
AJo - 16
AQo - 16
AKo - 12


4(4)+4(3)+8(6)+3(16)+1(12) = 136 combinations.

136/1225 = 11%.

So, he’ll call me 11% of the time. This estimate is not close to exact though because we might might exclude some combos (like TT-AA, or AJ+) because he didn’t raise. This is offset by the fact he might limp with his biggest hands though.

So, this means that I’m getting called 11% of the time after he limps.


This means that 89% of the time I automatically win 13,800 (which is the existing pot). The other 11% of the time when he calls I average a whopping –16,119 loss.

So, the EV of moving = (.89 * 13,800) + (.11 * (-16,119)) = 10,508.91. The EV of this move = 12% of my stack.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[Matador225]

Shoving here is not questionable at all. I'm pushing here all day long late in a tournament against someone that I suspect to be weak.

[EnderIII]

Looks reasonable. I guess the main problem is if he raises with many hands and limps only with really weak or really strong hands (the fact that he limped with A9s seems to indicate this isn't the case for this particular player, but isn't really relevant to trying to figure out what to do in a readless situation)

So based on the assumption that he is limping with lots of hands, it looks really good, but if he is only limping with a few hands and either raising or folding with the rest, then the number of times you take it down without a showdown greatly decreases. From personal observation (ie. small personal sample size) most players don't raise that often out of the small blind and are inclined to complete with a wide variety of hands. Hence my initial assumptions. But this is really the key factor and i just don't know if its true.