folding a set?

[jason75]

2nd hand of a live tourney . . . there should be little thought that goes into this call.

So many players will go broke with top pair at this stage that it's not even worth considering. If you did flop an underset, well, lightning strikes people very rarely but it does happen. Doesn't mean we live our entire lives inside . . .

Example: I flopped a set of 2's in a raised multiway pot (I'm the button, UTG raise, 4 callers in front of me) early in a WSOP Circut event . . . Some guy calls me down on the flop and calls my push on the turn with a gutshot straight draw (A4) on a 2579 board . . . . .

[jtomon]

he could be a donk w/ AK looking for a 4 outer which is consistent w/ his bet. I'm ok going broke quick, if its set over set so be it.

[enkel1]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That's a pretty narrow raising range to put a villian you have never seen before on. IMHO, villian would have to be super-tight to have that stringent a raising range in MP. I can see an unknown villian making the initial raise with other hands that he might play the same way, like QJs. Perhaps he would even play it that way with AKs with one of his suit on board.

You need about 22% equity in order to call. If opponent has JJ+,AQs,QJs then Pokerstove shows your equity to be 66.5%. Even if we restrict it to only JJ+ your equity is still 60%. That's because AA and KK are more likely than JJ and QQ since a Q and a Jack is visible. Even if we restrict to only AA,QQ, and JJ, we still get an equity for you of 47%.

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To the OP:

download pokerstove and get comfortable using it. Your thought process is essentially correct, but your conclusions are flawed because you do not have the quantitative analysis (the numbers) correct. In your overly simplified 75% JJ/QQ, 25% AA/KK, you STILL have the equity to call and this range is too tight for no read & this early in the tournament.

As I said earlier, not going broke to a larger set is a mistake. You cannot be that certain in this situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there is a story in ace on the river, where Barry is playing TD 2-7, and gets paid of when he has nuts against second nuts. And the guy says something like "thats incridible, do you know the odds for you holding that hand?." And Barry answers: "yes, it was 100%". (since he wouldnt have played any other hand in that way)

Lets say me oversimplified 75% JJ,QQ 25% KK+, is that kind of percentage ("gut-feeling"-percentage). Is there a good way to combine it with the range of {AQ, JJ+, JQ, KT, AK} to get a mixed gut-feeling/math-equity?

[enkel1]

[ QUOTE ]
2nd hand of a live tourney . . . there should be little thought that goes into this call.

So many players will go broke with top pair at this stage that it's not even worth considering. If you did flop an underset, well, lightning strikes people very rarely but it does happen. Doesn't mean we live our entire lives inside . . .

Example: I flopped a set of 2's in a raised multiway pot (I'm the button, UTG raise, 4 callers in front of me) early in a WSOP Circut event . . . Some guy calls me down on the flop and calls my push on the turn with a gutshot straight draw (A4) on a 2579 board . . . . .

[/ QUOTE ]

There are some donks at this tourny, but most players are good winning players. Some much better then others of course, but almost nobody gets broke with AK there. I come from a country where you have to go through great extent to play live poker, and most donks just dont bother...

Anyways, Ive allready admited defeat, and I will call with bottom set whatever my gut tells me.

[Black Aces 518]

Please tell me that you called and lost to JJ or QQ, not that you actually folded.

[AceLuby]

This is kind of a ridiculous post. Instacall. Very basic.

[lagmaster]

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Please tell me that you called and lost to JJ or QQ, not that you actually folded.

[/ QUOTE ]

That was exactly what I thought after reading the first post. The only way this hand ever gets posted is if hero loses to set over set and thinks in hindsight that there was a way to get off this hand. Like everyone else has told the op, if you get all your money in with a set on this flop then you did what you needed to.

[Beachman42]

Tragically, my read is that OP folded . . .

[SwingVelvet]

i think op called, villain showed 22 and rivered quads... but hey maybe he should have folded?

[Quanah Parker]

Why call a PF raise with 77 if not hoping to flop a set?

If the flop had been Q7Q, are you going to fold because you think he has QQ?