#1
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NL 50 flopped set facing lots of heat
co is a total monkey hes like 50/6. button is a solid tag. other than that nothing crazy has happened since ive been at table.
Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players LegoPoker Hand History Converter UTG: $44.50 CO: $50.20 BTN: $225.15 Hero (SB): $55.70 BB: $50 Pre-Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB) UTG folds, CO calls $0.50, <font color="red">BTN raises to $2</font>, Hero calls $1.75, BB folds, CO calls $1.50 Flop: ($6.50) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players) <font color="red">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $48.20 and is All-In</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $91.40</font>, Hero ? |
#2
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Re: NL 50 flopped set facing lots of heat
insta call
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#3
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Re: NL 50 flopped set facing lots of heat
Hmmm this is not as clear cut as a normal set on this flop given the action and the stats.
I think I can let this go, ill probably call 666 or 777 |
#4
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Re: NL 50 flopped set facing lots of heat
He says button is solid tag, so I think any suited connectors would be in his stealing range, plus many over pairs 88-AA. He says CO is a monkey so he would be discounted some, unless his agg factor is really low.
Yes, you may have been unlucky and flopped an underset, but I think the buttons range, and discounting a monkey you call. that would be my thought process anyway. I think agg factor of CO is very important here. |
#5
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Re: NL 50 flopped set facing lots of heat
while BTN is a solid TAG, would he not play an overpair like this? esp knowing CO is a donkey. We lose to 66, 77, but we beat 67s, and JJ+ (assuming TAG wouldn't play like this with < TT).
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#6
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Re: NL 50 flopped set facing lots of heat
I think this is a call. I wish we knew what kind of tag button is, getting a better feel for his pf range %.
TAG knows what you know about the fishy one. Since I can see him calling with JJ+ as well as some other stuff (76s, for example), this far outweighs the times he, or fish, has you oversetted. |
#7
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Re: NL 50 flopped set facing lots of heat
I played a little with ranges using Holdem Ranger, they may be way off, but I attempted to devise BTN's partially on the basis of CO's image. Note that BTN's range is weighted mostly towards overpairs+, with the occasional pair+draw. CO's range might be deemed a little too tight, but I just went with something semi-sane, given his flop action.
Note: 85+ means (85, 86, ... 8A) and the numbers in brackets after, say, JJ(20) means I'm asking the calculator to assign that card combo a 20% total probability of showing up given how the hand was played. Board: 4d 6h 7s Hero: 4s4c CO: {5Ts+, 85+, 55-TT, 67, 56, 57, 53, JJ(20), QQ(20), KK(10), AA(10)} BTN: {QQ+, JJ(75), TT(40), 99(25), 88, 77, 66, 67, 56(20), 57(20), 53, 58} Equities: Hero = 43%; CO = 27%; BTN = 30% So, um, call. P.S. I have an unfortunate tendency to sometimes miss some obvious element when first making a calc-post, so let me know if you spot anything, and I'll amend. |
#8
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Re: NL 50 flopped set facing lots of heat
Dont fold a set, just dont do it. You will see overpairs and two pair here often enough I think for this call to be profitable.
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#9
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Re: NL 50 flopped set facing lots of heat
I think bottom set is seldom good here. I'm more than happy to call villan's raise but not that of buttons reraise. I can see villan doing this with an overpair/2pair often enough to make this an instacall in a 2 way pot. However, the TAG has shoved which tells me he's ahead of an overpair and he doesn't want you drawing to a straight. I think button is more often than not on an overset... two pair / combo draw is possible but I don't think that likely.
I'm folding this myself. |
#10
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Re: NL 50 flopped set facing lots of heat
I think you see 66 and 77 a lot from the button, but I think you see AA, KK, 67s, and worse even more. Against that range and assuming UTG's a nutjob (even if we're generous and say his range is sets, straights, and 2 pair two thirds of the time and random other 1 pair hand the other third) folding is an enormous mistake.
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