#1
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*** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
BUF @ NYJ 4:05 PM
HOU @ SD 4:05 PM JAC @ TB 4:05 PM WAS @ NE 4:15 PM NO @ SF 4:15 PM |
#2
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
The only one I got is NE/WAS Over 48.
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#3
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
what are people thinking about HOU @ SD if they have to play in arizona, or even possible houston? also anyone think hte fire will be distracting enough to players that they will play significantly worse?
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#4
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
[ QUOTE ]
what are people thinking about HOU @ SD if they have to play in arizona, or even possible houston? also anyone think hte fire will be distracting enough to players that they will play significantly worse? [/ QUOTE ] This is exactly what I'm thinking. I think San Diego's mind will be partly focused on the fires, and when dealing with a 3-4 Houston team that's trying to really make a push in this league I don't think it'll be an easy game for them. With Eric Parker out, Jackson battling a shoulder injury, and everyone's mind on their homes and families in the San Diego area, coming against a Houston team who's mad at their loss last week (as well as knowing they came within a TD of Indy in the 3rd week) will be nothing short of a tough game. I don't how the spread got so high, but getting +365 on the Houston moneyline, I had to take them for the upset. I just don't think they'll let this game through their grip. |
#5
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
[ QUOTE ]
With Eric Parker out, Jackson battling a shoulder injury [/ QUOTE ] As an SD fan, I'll trade Parker for Chris Chambers any day of the week. |
#6
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
1u BUF @ NYJ -2.5
1u HOU +10 @ SD 1u JAC +3.5 @ TB 1u WAS +17 @ NE 1u NO @ SF +3 had to buy .5 points in some games like 49ers and Redskins. (pinnacle) Good luck all, enjoy the games! |
#7
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
Trying for a middle on the WAS/NE game. I've got:
WAS +17 -115 5.75u NE -15.5 -110 5.5u 4 outcomes: 1) NE wins by 18 or more - lose 1st, win 2nd, -0.75u 2) NE wins by exactly 17 - push 1st, win 2nd, +11u 3) NE wins by exactly 16 - win both, +22.5u 4) NE wins by 15 or less or loses - win 1st, lose 2nd, -0.5u The bet is +EV if the probability of case 2 or 3 occurring is > ~8%. From the analysis I've done, I think this is true. |
#8
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
The Jets at -2.5 looks amazing to me. A few weeks ago they were -3 @Buffalo. The Bills have not played a single road game since. So either the Bills were the value pick of the year in that 1st game or there's a big overeaction to them playing some competetive ball at home.
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#9
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
Just wanted to post my teaser here:
Buffalo +9 San Francisco +9 Washington +23 (Risk 1.89u to win 3.41u) I was trying to do as close to a Wong as possible, but Bodog won't let you tease the Cle/StL or the Ten/Oak game. Since their 3-teamers pay significantly better than their 2-teamers and the teaser already had some extra value from SF getting +3 when market value was +2 and Washington was getting a point better than market value as well, I decided to throw the Skins in there. I think that the Redskins would be a good value play just betting them ATS and since it's so hard for an NFL team to win by more than three scores, I think there's actually some decent value in moving it across the 20 and 21. There isn't enough of a sample size to test it accurately since so few NFL teams are ever favored by more than 15.5, but I think with the spread this high, there's some value there. |
#10
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Re: *** OFFICIAL 10/28/07 NFL AFTERNOON GAME THREAD ***
i just lost AA AI PF to KK for 400 dollars
so i'm gonna gamble it up i have like 5 teasers 6 Team Teaser #91014066 Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread NFL - WEEK 8 (206) Chicago Bears +½ Sun@1:00p Competitor: (205) Detroit Lions (Teased 6.0 points) Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread NFL WEEK 8 (207) Indianapolis Colts -1 Sun@1:00p Competitor: (208) Carolina Panthers (Teased 6.0 points) Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total NFL - WEEK 8 Game is being played at Wembley Stadium - London, England. (209) New York Giants vs. (210) Miami Dolphins Under 54 Sun@1:00p (Teased 6.0 points) Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total NFL - WEEK 8 (215) Pittsburgh Steelers vs. (216) Cincinnati Bengals Over 42 Sun@1:00p (Teased 6.0 points) Football - NFL Lines (Game) Total NFL - WEEK 8 (221) Jacksonville Jaguars vs. (222) Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 26 Sun@4:05p (Teased 6.0 points) Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread NFL - WEEK 8 (226) New England Patriots -11 Sun@4:15p Competitor: (225) Washington Redskins (Teased 6.0 points) Risk $50.00 to win $300.00 |
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